There’s no need to tell me that Duke, Arizona and Michigan will be No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
Never mind the final few days of the regular season or the upcoming conference tournament. It would take more than another loss to knock one of those teams off their top line. They’ve had enough.
Who’s left in first place?
Defending NCAA champion Florida (24-6) and 2023-24 champion UConn (27-3) are the only candidates.
Beware of polymarket.
It’s Florida.
The NCAA selection committee could take the easy route or the more considered route when it announces the 68-team tournament field on Selection Sunday, March 15.
The Big East champion Huskies can point to one game as justification for their second No. 1 seed in three years. That means a 77-73 win over Florida in the Jimmy V Classic on Dec. 9 at Madison Square Garden.
UConn held the Gators to 40 percent shooting and forced a five-second call on an inbounds play with nine seconds left in a three-point game, preventing the Gators from a potential game-tying shot.
Quality wins, quality wins.
UConn is 18-2 since playing its final regular season Big East game Saturday at Marquette.
Over the next three months, Florida grew canines.
Florida has gone 19-2 since then and has played a tougher schedule in a tougher Southeastern Conference. The 10-game winning streak now ranks as the longest in the Power Six and the fourth-longest in Division I behind Miami of Ohio (30), Navy (13) and High Point (11).
It took Florida a little longer to find a new identity.
Dynamic point guard Walter Clayton was the most influential player in the NCAA Tournament a year ago while the Gators won their third title.
Clayton’s skill and will helped the Gators overcome a nine-point deficit to Texas Tech in the West Regional final, a nine-point deficit to Auburn in the national semifinals, and a 12-point deficit to Houston in the title game. It’s truly breathtaking.
And never mind the 77-75 second-round NCAA victory over UConn when the Gators overcame a six-point lead to end coach Danny Hurley’s 3-peat bid.
No longer guard-first, but not guard-first, the Gators have arguably the best front line in the college game, led by forward Thomas Baugh, projected to be a 2026 NBA lottery pick. They lead the NCAA in rebounding margin at plus-14.3 and are ninth in scoring margin at plus-15.7.
The analysis has confidence in the Gators.
Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida ranked first through fourth in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin. UConn is ranked 10th.
Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida are the only teams ranked in the top nine in both offensive and defensive efficiency. UConn ranks 12th in defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.
The numbers may change, but the trend seems clear.
UConn won the game. Florida won the war.
