Toyota, Hyundai and the Chinese are expected to bear the brunt of the Iran war

DETROIT— ToyotaEngineHyundai Motor and Chinese automakers like Chery face the most potential impact on foreign automakers from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, according to a Bernstein analysis.

Those international automakers account for about a third of sales in the Middle East, according to the report, led by Toyota at 17%. hyundai at 10% and chery at 5%. Specifically in Iran, Bernstein reports that Iranian automakers Iran Khodro and SAIPA lead, followed by Chery with a 6% market share.

Other Chinese automakers are also expected to be affected as the Middle East has become a growing destination for Chinese auto exports. Bernstein, citing Chinese export data, said the region accounted for about 17% of China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2025.

Bernstein’s report notes that while sales in the region will be affected, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, and rising oil prices will have ripple effects throughout the global auto industry.

“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz adds 10 to 14 days to transit times,” Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee said in a note to investors on Wednesday, adding that “a prolonged conflict and closure of the strait would hurt sales, increase logistics costs and delay deliveries.”

According to the consulting firm AlixPartners, about 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait every day. It is also a “critical step” for shipments of vehicles and parts to the Middle East, Bernstein said.

Bernstein said any effect on Japanese automakers “seems limited for now, but close monitoring of developments is still required.” He also said, of European automakers Chrysler and Jeep parent stellantis “seems to have the most exposure in light of its overall problems.”

“The impact of rising gas prices is already being seen in the 11% drop in Stellantis’ stock price since its close last Friday; making such a sharp pivot toward gas-guzzling HEMI V8 engines and canceling its electrification efforts seems particularly unfavorable right now,” Lee wrote.

U.S. crude oil prices topped $80 a barrel on Thursday, and U.S. retail gasoline prices have risen nearly 27 cents since last week to $3.25 a gallon on average, according to motoring group AAA.

Stellantis said this week that it is “closely monitoring developments in affected countries,” noting that “it is not yet possible to fully assess the potential impact on local operations.”

Toyota, Hyundai and Chery did not immediately respond to requests for comment.