The International Energy Agency warns against a politically and economically misguided return to dependence on Russian energy.
The Kremlin has said the US-Israel war against Iran had caused “a significant increase in demand” for Russian energy products, a day after the US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil currently stuck at sea.
The conflict, which entered its seventh day on Friday, has left the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage, virtually closed, as countries around the world struggle as they are deprived of a fifth of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas.
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Russia, mired in its own war launched in Ukraine more than four years ago, can still stealthily benefit from this new expanding war in the Middle East.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday that Russia has been and remains a reliable supplier of oil and gas, through pipelines and in liquefied form.
“We are seeing a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources in connection with the war in Iran. Russia has been and remains a reliable supplier of both oil and gas, including pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas,” Peskov told reporters.
“It also remains capable of guaranteeing the continuity of all deliveries for which contracts have been signed,” he added.
Peskov declined to reveal potential volumes of Russian oil supplies to India following Washington’s waiver, which followed months of American pressure and the imposition of tough tariffs on the South Asian nation to stop it from buying Russian oil.
It is wrong to depend on Russia again
Also on Friday, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol suggested that turning to Russia for gas supplies will be economically and politically incorrect.
“The current crisis in the Middle East has raised doubts in some quarters about whether to return to Russia or not,” Birol told reporters after a meeting of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Union commissioners on global energy markets.
The EU is under increasing pressure from industries and governments to intervene and try to curb high energy prices. Von der Leyen has promised to draw up options for EU leaders to consider at a summit later this month.
“One of Europe’s historic mistakes was its excessive dependence on one country, Russia, for its energy sources,” the IEA chief said.
Regarding oil, Birol stated that there were “logistical disruptions” due to the war, but that there was “a lot of oil” on the global market.
Meanwhile, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told The Financial Times in an interview published Friday that he expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks if “the conflict with Iran continues” and drives oil to $150 a barrel.
Qatar halted its production of liquefied natural gas on Monday, as Iran continued to attack Gulf countries in retaliation for Israeli and US attacks. The country’s LNG production is equivalent to approximately 20 percent of global supply and plays a key role in balancing fuel demand in Asian and European markets.
“We hope that everyone who has not requested force majeure will do so in the coming days as this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to request force majeure,” al-Kaabi told the Financial Times. “If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be affected,” he said.
“The price of energy for everyone is going to rise. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that will not be able to supply,” Kaabi said.
Kaabi said that even if the war ended immediately, it would take Qatar “weeks or months” to return to a normal delivery cycle.
He predicted that crude oil prices could reach $150 a barrel in two to three weeks if ships and tankers were unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Kaabi also expects gas prices to rise to $40 per million British thermal units.
On Friday, benchmark U.S. crude rose 4.1 percent to $84.36 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gained 1.7 percent to $87 a barrel. It was trading near its highest level since April 2024.
