Fernando Mendoza has been the consensus No. 1 pick for the past few months.
That makes sense. He’s a safe option for a Raiders team that desperately needs a quarterback. Mendoza, who won the Heisman last season, checked a lot of boxes. Most scouts agree that he is a very intelligent prospect. He’s very tall at 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, has solid arm talent, can move off pressure, can use his legs to extend plays, and generally has a high floor for a prospect.
I’m not sure he’s a slam dunk first overall pick. Mendoza is good at most things, but I’m not sure he’s very elite at any one thing. I’m not saying he’s not good, but it feels crazy that the Las Vegas pick has been locked in since they found out they were picking first.
Scouts don’t seem to like Mendoza’s ability to handle at the NFL level. Luckily, Vegas made perhaps the best hire of its coaching cycle in former Seahawks offensive coordinator Klin Kubiak. While he can run an offense at a very high level and get the most out of his quarterback, we could see Mendoza struggle within this offense, at least in his rookie season.
Mendoza is also entering what could be the worst situation in the league. Ashton Jeanty was the Raider’s first round pick last year, but had trouble developing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Then, moving on to the receivers, there isn’t much talent outside of tight end Brock Bowers. Bowers is one of the best offensive tight ends in football, but I don’t like my rookie’s top target being a tight end by a huge margin.
The Raiders underperformed for most of last season, and I’m not sure this is the best year for them to go all-in on a QB in the first round. They need a lot more help and will need to replace Maxx Crosby if he is traded. Would it really be crazy to draft one of the elite players with your first pick?
Arvell Reese looked like he was created in a lab when tested at the combine, and David Bailey and Reuben Bain Jr. also felt like future All-Pro players. I know the team will never reach Sonny Styles or Caleb Downs because of position value, but I feel a lot better about the ability of both players to be NFL-ready than Mendoza.
The NFL is a quarterback league, but the last two Super Bowl winners were the Eagles and Seahawks. Jalen Hurts and Sam Darnold certainly aren’t bad, but it’s the elite team around them that puts them over the top.
It’s a lot easier to win in the NFL when a quarterback doesn’t take up a team’s entire cap space, and by the time the Raiders have a roster good enough to compete around Mendoza, I think they’ll have overpaid for what would be a former No. 1 overall pick. Drafting an edge rusher might not sell a lot of jerseys, but it could be a move that gets them closer to building a playoff-ready roster.
