Everyone hates Ford right now. Does this make it a no-brainer purchase?

• Ford ( F ) 2.4% down 0.5% vs. S&P 500, EV sales down 71%, trading at $12.81 vs. analyst targets of $14.14 to $17, Ford Pro guides to deliver EBIT of $6.5B to $7.5B in 2026.

• Inbound purchases and Ford Pro’s strong commercial margins offset the headline risks from EV sales collapse and supplier bankruptcy, creating a value opportunity.

• An analyst named NVIDIA just named his top 10 AI stocks in 2010. Get it for free here.

The Ford (NYSE: F ) news cycle is about as bad as it gets right now. EV sales are down 71% in February, total sales are down 5.5%, nearly 5 million vehicles are under recall, a key supplier is in bankruptcy, and fuel prices are pushing auto stocks lower on geopolitical fears. The stock is down 2.4% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 0.5%. That’s high pessimism, and for pension investors, high pessimism in a cash-generating industrial franchise is a buy order, not a warning.

When the noise is too loud, see what the interior is doing. William Clay Ford Jr., CEO and heir to the Ford family, purchased 140,000 Class B shares at $13.8175 on February 19, 2026. He has a complete view of every note, every supplier problem, every EV loss. He still bought. This is not a signal to ignore.

A 71% drop in EV sales looks catastrophic. Read the income statement instead. Ford’s Model E segment is the primary revenue drag. Management has guided for model losses of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion for 2026, but that figure is $0.3 billion better than in 2024, and segment losses are ringing from a profitable core. Pulling back from unprofitable EV volume strengthens margins. Analysts don’t need EV’s recovery to reach the $17 price target. They need Ford to stop losing money on EVs. This process is already underway. The market reads the headline; The income statement tells a different story.

READ: The analyst named NVIDIA in 2010 Just naming his top 10 AI stocks

While the headlines are fixed on EVs, Ford Pro (the commercial vehicle division that serves fleet operators with super-duty trucks and transit vans) is quietly generating the cash that funds everything else. Ford Pro delivered $1.99 billion in EBIT on revenue of $17.4 billion in Q3 at an 11.4% margin, and paid software subscriptions reached 818,000 customers by Q3 2025, up 30% for the full year. Management guided Ford Pro EBIT to be between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion for 2026. These fleet customers are tied to recurring software revenue. Ford Pro’s margin expansion is the single most important lever for the bull case.

First Brands Group’s supplier bankruptcies are not dischargeable. Three of the four potential customers for First Brands’ factory produce parts exclusively for Ford’s high-volume models, and Ford is currently paying in advance for parts to keep production going. If production of the F-Series is disrupted, Bell’s case changes materially. This is the view count.

Ford pays a quarterly dividend of $0.15 ($0.60 annually). Shares are at $12.81, versus a consensus analyst target of $14.14, providing a credible path for Ford Pro’s growth to $17. No need for an EV miracle. Adding a Ford to your retirement portfolio before sentiment changes seems like a good bet.

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