The bar for NATO Article 5 action against Iran is high

This image shows the remains of a NATO air defense system that intercepted an Iranian missile aimed at Turkey earlier this week, as members of the military alliance feel the heat of war in the Middle East.

Iran has been attacking multiple countries in response to US and Israeli attacks against it. It has affected the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Its northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, said an Iranian drone wounded two civilians on Thursday.

Countries further afield have also been hit by drones targeting a British air base in Cyprus this week, while Turkey said Nato air and missile defense systems shot down a missile headed for its airspace on Wednesday. Both countries are members of NATO, obliged by Article 5 of their treaty to unite in defense of any member that is attacked.

Visiting North Macedonia on Tuesday, before Turkey claimed it had shot down the Iranian missile, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte called Iran an “exporter of chaos” that posed a “far-reaching” danger. But he added that the alliance will “collectively defend every inch of NATO territory” if necessary.

But experts have said the bar for a military alliance response remains high.

Iran denied firing a missile at Türkiye but has not responded to drones targeting the British base in Cyprus. The UK Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday that the “Shahed-type drone” – synonymous with Iran, which makes one-way Shahed attack drones and exports them to ally Russia – “was not launched from Iran”. CNBC has requested further comment from Iran’s Foreign Ministry.

After the drone strikes, Euronews reported that NATO had not held discussions about them, considering them too minor to justify talks. CNBC has asked NATO for comment.

Analysts say the incidents show the war could expand and affect the alliance.

Hamish Kinnear, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that the attacks on Turkey and a UK air base reflect “Iran’s willingness to expand what it sees as an existential war of survival.”

The incidents further raised the stakes for an expanding regional war, even if it is not clear that Iran was deliberately targeting Turkey, he said. He said that if Tehran decided to attack Turkey more aggressively, it would likely attack US bases and energy infrastructure, “mirroring Iranian tactics in the Persian Gulf.”

Kinnear said Türkiye would prefer not to be drawn into war with Iran, but would likely consider “direct retaliation” if Iran clearly began attacking it.

NATO members are already dealing with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the alliance’s eastern flank. The alliance’s European members have depleted their reserves while supporting Ukraine, and efforts to replenish them have been slow, while promises to increase defense spending have hit roadblocks.

In September, after Russian drones entered Polish airspace, the alliance launched “Eastern Sentry,” an operation to bolster air defenses. While Article 5 was not triggered, the alliance said its commitment to the principle was “strong”, adding: “We will continue to respond in the manner, time and arena we choose.”

Guntram Wolff, a senior researcher at Bruegel, told CNBC on Thursday that it would be “a bit of a stretch to trigger Article 5 because of a missile downing.”

“My feeling is really that, on the military side, Iran will have reduced capabilities to deliver missiles and drones, but this will not be completely eliminated. But the scenario that really worries me is more of a scenario of prolonged instability in Iran itself with implications for regional stability,” he told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition.”

“There will always be new kinds of waves from different factions, like in Yemen, where the Houthis send rockets at ships from time to time. This kind of instability would be really bad for the entire region.”