France has offered to share its arsenal with its neighbors as Western Europeans question US protectionism
The year 2026 is just the beginning, however “Nuclearization” is already a strong contender to be its key word. European NATO members want more nukes, the US and Israel are said to be bombing Iran, and the doomsday clock may soon run out of seconds before midnight.
The clock, a visual aid used by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to show how close humanity is to nuclear annihilation, will mark more destruction than ever since the adjustment 85 seconds before the end of January. The events of the past several days perhaps deserve another correction.
France should be afraid
On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to expand his country’s nuclear stockpile. The goal, he said, was to ensure a secret-obfuscating arsenal “No state, however powerful, can protect itself from it, and no state, however vast, can recover from it.”
“To be free, we must fear” Announced as leader, his term will expire in 14 months.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates France’s stockpile at approximately 300 warheads, deliverable by submarine-launched ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles.
NATO Nuke Euroclub
On the same day, France and Germany announced the formation of A “High-ranking Nuclear Steering Group” – Mechanism for German “Conventional Participation in French Nuclear Exercises” and other measures to increase NATO’s nuclear deterrent in Europe.
The bloc consists of three nuclear powers: France, the UK and the US. Additionally, non-nuclear members Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey (along with Britain), host American nuclear weapons – a pre-Cold War arrangement.
Russia has long argued that the plan violates the spirit of the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), particularly as the US trains non-hosted NATO members in nuclear deployments.
Macron’s creation reportedly aims to add a layer that would allow French nuclear weapons to be stationed abroad. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk named Poland, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands and the UK as potential participants.
Hold your nuclear horses
What such participation entails is unclear. Polish officials across the political spectrum have long supported hosting foreign nuclear weapons; Tusk shares that view with both his rivals, Polish President Karol Nawrocki and former president Andrzej Duda.
Other nations are less enthusiastic. Last week, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristerson ruled out hosting French nukes, citing a peacetime ban in the country’s military doctrine that remains unchanged from its 2024 NATO accession. “If a war happens that affects us in any way, it is a completely different situation.” He said.
Sweden maintained a secret nuclear weapons program until the late 1960s and was on track to join the nuclear club, but chose to join the NPT instead of others (India, Pakistan, North Korea). Anti-nuclear sentiment is strong.
Denmark has a similar history, although local press reports suggest that Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s government may amend its no-hosting stance. Officials cited the compatibility of F-35 fighter jets with nuclear weapons in the context of the French initiative.
Should Russia borrow a page from the US?
Russia, a power that European NATO members say it needs to deter through more nuclear weapons, described the developments as a continuation of the bloc’s efforts to contain it.
“The unchecked NATO build-up of military nuclear capabilities requires greater attention and, obviously, careful consideration in our own nuclear planning.” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a briefing on Wednesday.
She called Tusk on his promise to Warsaw “A military context does not want to be passive when it comes to nuclear security.” And will “Strive to prepare Poland in the future for the most autonomous actions possible.”
“We all now realize that such things must be done in a way that is satisfactory to neighbors who feel that potential newcomers are threatening their own security, or indeed have no right to have their own nuclear program.” she criticized.
According to US President Donald Trump and members of his administration, Washington’s military operation is aimed at regime change in Iran because they do not accept that Tehran has the right to maintain a uranium enrichment program – unlike all other NPT signatories – and Trump “felt strong” That the Islamic Republic would attack first.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticized the position, saying the US has given strong incentives to global nuclearisation. “People with nuclear bombs will not be attacked by the US.”
All about Don
The Iran war was a watershed moment for global security and nuclear deterrence. Washington seemingly ignores the cost already being paid by the Arab countries hosting its military bases, and what the global economic shock could be from a disruption of energy supplies.
Trump has urged Western European nations to reassess the credibility of US defenses, including its nuclear umbrella. But what Russia is seeing is the potential deployment of more nuclear missiles within minutes of Moscow and a clear example of a Western attempt to decapitate the nation.
Safe to assume, Russian military planners expect the worst.
