Rigetti Computing ( RGTI ), one of the world’s leading names in quantum computing, is scheduled to report its results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Wednesday, March 4, after the market closes. With names like Ionq ( IONQ ) and D-Wave Quantum ( QBTS ), Regetti’s name has emerged as one of the potential winners in quantum computing, tech’s next battleground.
Founded in 2013, Rigetti develops superconducting quantum computers and provides access to them through cloud-based platforms. Its business model centers on Quantum Computing-as-a-Service (QCaaS), allowing enterprise, government, and research customers to run quantum algorithms remotely via classical cloud infrastructure.
Notably, Rigetti currently commands a market capitalization of $5.83 billion. RGTI stock has been under pressure this year, down 22% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. However, over the past year, RGTI stock has more than doubled, gaining 124% over the past 52 weeks.
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For the upcoming Q4 report, analysts are looking for a sequential recovery in earnings after a decline in Q3. Investors are particularly focused on whether the company’s recent business successes are beginning to mark the top line.
Overall, estimates are for fourth-quarter revenue of $2.46 million and a loss of $0.05 per share, down from a loss of $0.08 per share last year. After Q3 earnings fell and missed estimates, the market expects Q4 to be boosted by a $5.8 million Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) contract and delivery of Nueva QPU systems.
Specifically, the third quarter saw Regetti report revenue of $1.9 million, down from $2.4 million in the year-ago period. However, losses narrowed to $0.03 per share from $0.07 in the same period last year. Notably, this was the company’s first quarter of below-estimated losses after four consecutive quarters of missing estimates.
Research and development expenses increased 18% year-over-year (YOY) to $15 million. It appears to be paying off now, as Rigetti plans to deploy a 150+ qubit system with an estimated 99.7% median two-qubit gate fidelity in or around the end of 2026, and a 1,000+ qubit system with an estimated median of 2.89-2.89 by the end of 2027 or so.
Net cash used in operating activities for the first nine months of 2025 increased to $43.6 million from $42.1 million last year. Overall, Regetti ended the September 2025 quarter with a cash balance of $26.1 million, which was above its short-term debt level of $2.2 million.
At the same time, Righetti continues to trade at significantly higher valuations, which is typical of a company with revenue growth and unprofitability. Its prior EV/Sales and Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios of 669.8 and 720.4 are nowhere near the sector median.
The source of this overvaluation stems from the fact that the quantum computing market is set to explode, with some expecting it to have as profound an impact as AI. Quantum computing has the potential to create a value of around $1.3 trillion by 2035, according to consulting giant McKinsey.
But what does Rigetti offer to win this market? Well, for starters, Regetti is moving away from a purely cloud-based research model toward a higher-margin, hardware-focused business strategy. The core of this offering is their proprietary modular chiplet architecture, which allows qubit numbers to be scaled by combining small, high-yield processors. This approach addresses the industry’s biggest hurdle, which is the complexity of manufacturing large-scale superconducting circuits.
In addition, Regetti’s integration with Nvidia’s ( NVDA ) NVQLink and deployment of the Novera QPU to the wider R&D community offers a “full-stack” game that emphasizes speed and hybrid classical-quantum compatibility. While competitors such as IonQ lead in gate fidelity, Regetti’s value proposition lies in its 1,000-qubit roadmap (targeted for 2027) and its ability to manufacture these systems in-house in its dedicated Fab-1 facilities, potentially offering a more practical path to industrial-scale profitability.
However, significant hurdles remain before any meaningful “quantum benefits” can be realized. Achieving practical use is widely expected to require more than 1,000 physical qubits, two-qubit gate fidelity above 99.9%, gate times below 50 nanoseconds, and effective error correction. Rigetti has yet to meet any of these thresholds and will continue to project for several more years before similar milestones are within reach.
Accordingly, analysts rated RGTI stock as a “moderate buy” with an average target price of $40.30, indicating a potential upside of about 134% from current levels. Of the 11 analysts covering the stock, seven have a “strong-buy” rating, one has a “moderate-buy” rating, and three have a “hold” rating.
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As of the date of publication, Pathikrit Bose did not have any positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
