Thiel cashes out $280M while Palantir faithfully does the math


Thiel cashes out $280M while Palantir faithfully does the math
Thiel cashes out $280M while Palantir loyalists do the math – Moby

Peter Thiel, everyone’s favorite big tech investor and antichrist comforting theologian, is ready to upload an insane amount of Palantir stock. According to a Form 144 SEC filing, Thiel plans to sell about 2 million shares of PLTR within three months for $280 million, according to a 10b5-1 business plan he approved last November. Paying off one of Palantir’s co-founders might read as a bad sign for CEO Alex Karp’s company, but with the U.S. now in open conflict with Iran and Palantir’s fingerprints all over the Pentagon’s semi-data infrastructure, the fight may be the catalyst that keeps the bills from completely losing their religion.

If you’ve been watching Palantir’s insider activity, Thiel’s stock moves aren’t exactly breaking news. His last sale before that was in October 2024, when he moved more than $400 million in shares through companies with names like Rivendell 7 LLC and STS Holdings II LLC, of ​​course because. Total revenue over multiple filings exceeded $590 million. He was a little early, with PLTR hitting an all-time high of $207 shortly after, but no one was crying for Peter Thiel.

What’s new this time is the company he keeps. On February 20th alone, co-founder Stephen Cohen sold about $43.7 million in shares, co-founder Shyam Sankar sold more than $22 million in shares, and CEO Alex Karp himself sold 493,025 shares worth $66 million. CFO David Glazer and Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor also attended the parade. That’s a lot of people taking money off the table on the same day, which is either completely innocent or the most coordinated scam in recent memory.

Carp’s name for “Plantarians” is a bit of a shocker for his retail faith base. As recently as the Q2 2025 earnings call, Corp told minority shareholders that he was “very happy to have you along for the ride” and credited the stock’s run to their support. Whether this feeling has an expiration date is now a live question.

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The sale comes against a backdrop that would otherwise look pretty good for Palantir. Q4 revenue came in at $1.4 billion, up nearly 70% year-over-year and ahead of Street estimates. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $4.48 billion, up 56% from 2024. US commercial revenue increased 137% in Q4 year-over-year. Government revenue reached $570 million, up 66%. The number of customers increased by 34%. By almost any measure, businesses do, which makes it difficult to get away with the usual “diversity” explanation for insider selling.

More interesting reading is that internals are probably prices at the top that the earnings report doesn’t show yet. Markets are nervous, AI trading looks tired, and Palantir has a P/E in the 200 to 220 range, which is the kind of valuation that needs anything, incidentally. Michael Berry has a short position and a substack, which passes for a valid warning signal at 2026. Add in the fact that the U.S. is only getting closer to Iran, and you have a big environment where even the most promising long-term prospects may need less liquidity.

The Iranian angle cuts both ways, though. Palantir has spent years embedding itself in the US military infrastructure in ways that are difficult to find. A $10 billion, 10-year Army Enterprise contract signed in mid-2025 means the ongoing conflict isn’t a headwind for Palantir’s revenue, it’s effectively a drag. The more chaos there is to manage, the more essential their platforms become.

How long the Iran conflict will last is unknown, and its form is still being considered. What is predictable is Palantir’s structural position within it. Their contracts with the Department of Defense are designed to absorb exactly this kind of long-term, data-intensive operating environment, and the pipeline of work orders should keep the revenue flowing through 2026 regardless of what the markets feel about the P/E. The tough question for investors is whether Oil and the company are simply profiting after an extraordinary run, or whether they know something about the extent to which Palantarians have yet to price out. Both things can be true. They usually are.

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(Tags translation)Peter Thiel

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