Faced with tough comparisons from a year ago, cargo shipments declined moderately in February as daily shipment numbers turned positive.
John Creek, a Georgia-based company, reported Tuesday that Tonys fell 2.7% year-over-year in February, an improvement from January’s 7% decline. February’s result was driven by a 0.3% increase in daily shipments, which was more than offset by a 3% decline in weight per shipment.
Both months were high versus low double-digit growth in 2025. Compared to a two-year stacked comparison, SAIA (NASDAQ: SAIA ) traded 9.5% in February (up 6.8% in January). The previous year’s comps of Saia start off easy in April (plus -4.4%), turning negative in May.
Company management previously indicated that January shipments, which were down 2.1% y/y, would have increased without a severe winter storm. (January tonnage would have fallen from about 4% to 4.5%.)
The update follows positive manufacturing data released on Monday.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index registered a reading of 52.4 in February, down 20 basis points from January. (A reading above 50 signals expansion while a reading below 50 indicates a contradiction.) This was the second straight positive report for a data set that has largely been in negative territory for three years.
The new orders sub-index – an indicator of future performance – came in at 55.8. Inflation in PMI data typically leads LTL volume by several months.
Saia did not provide revenue-based metrics in its mid-quarter update, but said contract renewal rates rose 5.9% in February. It already showed an increase of 6.6% in January. Contract rates grew by an average of 4.9% in the fourth quarter.
The company typically records adjusted margin deterioration of 30 to 50 bps from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, but expects to pick up that rate of change this year, in part due to a lower starting point (the fourth quarter’s adjusted operating ratio was 91.3%). The company reported an OR of 91.1% in the first quarter of 2025.
Its full-year 2026 outlook calls for 100 to 200 bps y/y growth, with the high end of the range associated with modest volume and yield growth. Saia has opened 39 terminals in the last three years making it a truly national carrier. While the new service centers are operating at a profit, they have been marginal in recent quarters.
Shares of SAIA were up 0.4% at 2:26 p.m. EST on Tuesday, versus the S&P 500, which was down 0.8%.
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