Bitcoin rose above $71,000 on Wednesday, hitting its highest level since February 8, even as broader geopolitical risks remained high. The move appears to have been triggered by a sudden change in macro sentiment around Iran, but the market structure within crypto has already primed BTC for a drastic change.
Why did Bitcoin price go up today?
The immediate catalyst was a report citing The Kobeissi Letter, which said the New York Times had reported that Iran had made a “secret” offer to the US to negotiate an end to the war. According to Kobeisi, the proposed framework includes Iran giving up or sharply limiting its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, as well as reducing support for proxy groups, while President Donald Trump has “suggested” that Iran’s surviving leaders could remain in power under the “Venezuela model.”
Related reading
Kobeissi added that “it’s unclear whether a deal is possible at this point,” but the timing coincided with a rapid risk response in the U.S. futures markets as well as Bitcoin. This macro header helps explain spark. It doesn’t fully explain why Bitcoin reacted more strongly than stocks and gold. For this, the location background is important.
US stock market futures rose after the New York Times reported that Iran had made a “secret” offer to the US to negotiate an end to the war.
Possible conditions include:
1. Iran to give up or seriously limit its ballistic missile and nuclear programs
2. Iran to give up… https://t.co/IsF3saWl1A
— Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 4, 2026
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, stated that Bitcoin entered the last week in unusually tight condition after months of constant weakness. “Bitcoin entered the weekend oversold, very short and significantly undervalued,” Lunde said. “First of all, the context of BTC before the war in Iran is very different from other asset classes. Bitcoin is down 50% after five consecutive months. The weekly RSI has dropped to the third lowest reading of all time, which means that BTC is oversold for the week.”
In other words, Bitcoin was not coming into a geopolitical shock from a position of strength. It was coming in after a deep wash. Lunde also noted that institutional exposure has already reduced significantly, with spot ETFs seeing outflows of around 100,000 BTC and CME open interest down 30% from October levels. This is important because investors are likely to use BTC as a hedge against uncertainty, which he believes has already reduced exposure to risk and diluted asset correlations with traditional macro trading.
Related reading
Inside the derivatives, the setup looked even more asymmetric. Perpetual funding rates were unusually low and traders spent much of February paying premiums to stay short, Lunde said. “This is unusual market behavior for BTC, an asset with a long-term bias,” he said. “Similar funding rate regimes have often been found at lower levels and have historically reflected sales imbalances, excesses and attrition.”
This disparity soon began to disappear in price. In a follow-up post, Lunde said Binance BTCUSDT perpetual interest increased by 7,547 BTC in four hours, which he said was a jump not seen in a comparable 4-hour period since 2023. This suggests that the rally is not just a clear response to the headlines, but a derivative positioning event.
Crypto contributor Darkfost pointed to similar arguments. He noted that Bitcoin’s rally above $70,000 came alongside five consecutive days of spot ETF inflows and a decisive turn in aggressive derivatives buying. On Binance, the BTC buy ratio reached 1.18, which was the highest reading of the year, while the volume of buyer purchases during the session exceeded $ 1 billion several times per hour. Together, these signals indicate that buyers are no longer absorbing selling pressure; they begin to dictate short-term price action.
At press time, BTC was trading at $70,851.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
