Lost in the noise of the widening regional war sparked by the US-Israeli attack on Iran was a historic turning point: Qatar shot down two Iranian planes approaching its territory.
Monday’s action, the first time an Arab state clashed militarily with Iran, conveyed a message: Under siege, once-passive Arab Gulf states are fighting back.
In less than 72 hours of this new war, the Gulf States have transformed from American security dependents pushing for peace to wartime militants actively fighting to defend their countries.
Why do we write this?
The Gulf Arab states lobbied intensely for the United States to engage in talks with Iran. However, during the war, 1,800 Iranian missiles and drones have been intercepted in Gulf airspace and hundreds of them managed to pass through. The conflict is transforming the Gulf. Will that last?
Gulf states still hold out hope that diplomacy can end the conflict.
Until then, however, they are showing a willingness to do whatever is necessary, including increasingly offensive actions, to protect their citizens, residents and economies. In doing so, they are changing the way they view themselves and their relationship with the United States.
If the conversion from mediator to soldier was quick, the journey was long and the red lines many.
In January, Gulf states urged US President Donald Trump to engage in talks with Tehran and aggressively lobbied against war.
They denied the United States permission to use their airspace and territories to launch attacks against Iran, thinking they would spare themselves the worst retaliation from Iran.
Even as their capitals were attacked by Iran on the first day of the war on Saturday, the Gulf states cautiously insisted on diplomacy to quickly end the conflict.
turning point
But in the next two days, Iran escalated its attacks on airports, seaports, embassies, hotels, residential skyscrapers, artificial intelligence data centers and, most importantly, Gulf gas fields and oil refineries, pushing states to act.
In less than five days, around 1,800 Iranian missiles and drones have been intercepted in Gulf airspace and hundreds of them have managed to pass through.
The United Arab Emirates alone have been hit by more than 1,000 Iranian missiles and drones.
“The Iranians are making it more difficult for the Gulf states to remain neutral,” says Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow on Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, from Bahrain.
For Saudi Arabia, the attacks on the US embassy in Riyadh, Riyadh international airport and Aramco oil refineries were three critical red lines that reportedly led Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to order his military to confront the Iranians directly.
The Saudi government did not respond to repeated requests for an official comment.
Qatar, the world’s second largest producer of liquefied natural gas, which tirelessly mediated the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and was a frequent diplomatic intermediary between Tehran and Washington, had its own red lines. They included attacks on residential areas in Doha, the suspension of operations of Qatar Airways and attacks on its LNG terminals that forced its production offline, causing a rise in global energy prices.
Majed al-Ansari, the Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman who in December described to the Monitor how mediation and peace brokering were tied to the small country’s identity and security, publicly warned Iran about this reluctant shift toward military action.
“We decided to opt for peace because there was a possibility of peace at that time, but this cannot happen always,” Ansari told CNN in an interview on Monday. “This cannot go unanswered; a price must be paid for this attack on our people.”
No more good neighbors
The attacks have broken five years of rapprochement and cooperation between the Gulf Arab states and Iran, once heated rivals that had frequently competed for regional influence.
Neighborhood ties were based on the idea that the Gulf and Iran could not only coexist and cooperate, but also link their prosperity and security to each other, ending a rivalry that was destabilizing Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
Iran’s retaliation “confirms the narrative of those who see Iran as the main source of danger to the region and its missile program as a permanent cause of instability,” Anwar Gargash, an adviser to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, said in a post on the social platform
The conflict is particularly painful for Saudi Arabia, which went to great lengths to understand Iran’s psychology and threat perception regarding the Gulf States’ hosting of American troops, and which tried to please Tehran, observers and insiders say.
“There is a feeling now in Saudi Arabia: ‘We invested in Iran; we defended Iran enough that they wouldn’t do this. And for them to attack us, there is a feeling that this was all a waste of time,'” says Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi researcher and member of the International Gulf Forum.
The attacks against states that advocated for peace weeks ago and against neutral Oman, which brokered talks between the United States and Iran to avoid war, are likely to have a long-term impact on how Gulf states view diplomacy.
“I think one of the clear lessons that can be drawn not only from this conflict, but also from Israel’s attack on Qatar (in a 2025 attack on a Hamas negotiating team) is that mediation does not provide any protection,” says Dr. Alhasan, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Mediation does not offer immunity.”
Military options
While there has been some American and, as of Wednesday, French help to defend Gulf skies, most Iranian drones, missiles and aircraft are being shot down by local Gulf air forces and missile defenses.
Now, Gulf states are considering more offensive options.
First is what Gulf officials and observers call “forward defense” or “offensive defense.” It involves the mobilization of aircraft and military assets on its borders and near infrastructure to not only shoot down incoming rockets, but also attack Iranian aircraft that approach its territory, as Qatar did this week.
Another scenario that the Gulf states are discussing is opening their airspace and territories to US military operations against Iran, making such operations more efficient.
“There are other options that carry risks, difficulties and advantages,” says Dr. Alhasan.
“One would be for the Gulf to engage in preemptive strikes against Iranian missile launchers pointed in our direction,” he says. “A more extreme option is to fully join the United States in this campaign.”
2026 Planet Labs PBC/Reuters
Axios reported Tuesday that the United Arab Emirates was preparing to conduct strikes against Iranian missile launchers, an option that, according to a Gulf official who requested anonymity, was “still under serious consideration” as of Wednesday.
In a statement on Tuesday evening, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied that such a decision had been made. Also on Tuesday night, the ministry said: “The United Arab Emirates reiterates that it is not a party to this war and has not allowed the use of its territory, territorial waters or airspace for any attack against Iran,” but “retains its legitimate right to self-defense.”
The risks of joining war
For the Gulf States, taking the fight to Iran remains complicated and fraught with risk.
“If the Gulf States join this war, they risk joining a war they did not start or want, whose direction and cadence are led by the United States and Israel, and which they cannot control,” says Dr. Alhasan.
“Without a clear mission and objectives, the Gulf States risk being drawn into an open confrontation that (is) … literally, right next door.”
Then there is the role of Israel and its right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, according to the Gulf States, is simultaneously carrying out genocide in Gaza and destabilizing military actions throughout the region that have now plunged their countries into war.
Saudi Arabia, which is pressuring Israel to make concessions on creating a Palestinian state, does not want to be seen as coordinating or fighting alongside Israel and remains wary of Israeli military dominance in the region.
“Using any overt offensive measure would allow Israel to say, ‘Finally, the Americans, the Saudis and the Israelis are fighting side by side against Iran,’ which is the entire basis of its normalization campaign in the first place,” Alghashian says.
“We must be careful not to set precedents that will be difficult to undo the day after the war,” he says.
This has left the Gulf states trying to strike a delicate balance: mobilize enough forces in their skies to act as a deterrent, but for now, avoid being seen as joining the US-Israel war.
“Exit ramps are available,” Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi said in a statement on Tuesday, calling for regional diplomacy. “Let’s use them.”
