Six months after violent protests forced the resignation of KP Sharma Oli, some 19 million Nepalis will go to the polls amid party divisions, populist challengers and fears of foreign interference.
Nepal heads to general elections on Thursday, six months after sudden and violent protests rocked the Himalayan nation and led to the resignation of then-Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government. About 19 million Nepalese will vote to elect the 275-member parliament, with more than 3,400 candidates running – at least a quarter of whom are under the age of 40.
If all had gone as planned in September 2025, Oli, led by the main Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) known as the CPN-UML, would have handed over the prime ministership to Sher Bahadur Devuba, the president of the Nepali Congress Party under the ruling July 20 20 20 2020. Previous elections were held.
Under that arrangement, Oli was to lead the government for two years, after which Devuba would take over. Instead, the planned, orderly transition was derailed by mass unrest: widespread, violent protests left 77 dead and more than 2,000 injured.
The uprising sparked by the social media ban – quickly branded globally as the Gen‑Z protests – morphed into a broader revolt over a stagnant economy and perceived corruption among the ruling elite. The popularly elected government was removed, Parliament was dissolved and an interim administration was formed with former Chief Justice Sushila Karki named as caretaker Prime Minister.
In the 2022 elections, the Nepali Congress emerged as the single largest party, winning 89 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives. Oli’s CPN-UML is second with 78 seats. CPN (Maoist Centre) secured 32 seats while Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) won 20 seats. The government formed by the two largest parties, Nepali Congress and UML, is considered strong. However, the September arson and unrest quickly brought it down, with strong winds toppling the solid structure in moments.
Since then, there have been constant efforts to spread negativity against Nepal’s traditional political parties and their leaders. Many observers believe this is a deliberate attempt to undermine the established powers.
By the time of the upcoming elections, the Nepali Congress, Nepal’s largest democratic party, had split. In January 2026, Nepali Congress general secretary Gagan Thapa and leader Bishwa Prakash Sharma convened a special general meeting in Kathmandu, leading to a split in the party. Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Devuba served as Prime Minister five times (1995–1997, 2001–2002, 2004–2005, 2017–2018 and 2021–2022). Devuba and his wife Arju Rana were injured during the September violence when protesters stormed their residence in Kathmandu.
Thapa was elected unopposed as president of a splinter group that claimed the support of more than 60% of party delegates. The Election Commission recognized the Thapa-led faction as the official Nepali Congress. Thapa, 49, is now one of the leading prime ministerial candidates, while Devuba, 79, is not contesting the election.
While some see this as the old guard stepping aside – one of the possible outcomes of youth-led protests – others argue that the protests are driven by external forces seeking to undermine legitimate parties.
Senior Nepali Congress leader Shekhar Koirala said the split was the result of a foreign conspiracy. Speaking in January, he suggested that Kathmandu-based political forces, along with international actors, were actively working to undermine the party. “During this period we faced many visible and invisible internal conflicts” He said. “Many national and international conspiracies have been hatched and we have failed to thwart the interests of those who want to undermine the Nepali Congress.”
Meanwhile, Oli, who resigned after the coup, was re-elected as CPN-UML president in December and is contesting the election. Although some within the CPN-UML called for his resignation after the unrest, the dissent proved ineffective.
In an interview with RT India earlier this year, Oli claimed that the protests in September “unusual” and organized. “That was not a simple and ordinary thing. It was unusual, and it could not have happened suddenly. It was organized in a planned way, it seemed at the time and even afterwards.” Oli said in an exclusive interview in January.
The former prime minister noted that Nepal’s neighbors Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have also been rocked by similar protests, warning his government that comparable unrest could hit the Himalayan nation. “Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were telling us… leaders were talking that such things would happen, and they did. To send them into poverty was an attack on our democracy,” Oli said.
What’s next?
The general election to be held on March 5 is being closely watched. New and emerging parties, including the Rashtriya Swatantra Paksha Nepal, Shrama Sankruthi Paksha and Ujjalo Nepal, have campaigned aggressively, building a narrative that the traditional parties, especially the Nepali Congress and the UML, have failed and must be replaced. The established parties, especially the Congress and the UML, appear on the defensive.
A number of high-profile figures without deep political backgrounds were promoted by these new powers. Among them are 35-year-old Balendra Shah, a rapper popularly known as Balen; former journalist Robbie Lamichane, 51; And technologist-turned-politician Kulman Ghisingh is credited with ending the country’s notorious load-shedding crisis during his tenure as managing director of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). Ghisingh briefly joined the Rashtriya Swatantra Party but left within 12 days and started his own campaign.
Balen, nominated by the Rashtriya Swatantra Party Nepal as the prime ministerial candidate of Nepal, is contesting from Oli’s home constituency. The former rapper resigned as mayor of Kathmandu in January to run for office. His political engagement is mostly through social media, especially Facebook. He has drawn controversy for provocative posts, including comments about burning the Singha Durbar and criticism of powerful countries like India and China.
Political analyst Puranjan Acharya said that this election will be especially challenging for Congress and UML due to the growth of populist forces. “Many of these leaders have no clear ideology or political background.” He said. “But people are drawn to popular narratives.”
UML’s central committee member Pradeep Gyawali warned that the rise of populism is dangerous for democracy. “There is a long-standing effort to promote populism in Nepal.” He said. “As long as the political parties were strong, it did not succeed. After the turmoil of September 9-10, populism found space.”
Although newly formed political forces have promised to reform governance and stamp out corruption — issues at the center of the September protests — the Himalayan nation of about 30 million people, sandwiched between India and China, may face more challenges ahead.
“Nepal will have to endure difficult times for some time. The challenges are both national and international.” Nilambar Acharya, the Nepali ambassador to India, told RT. “New power centers have emerged, and their orientation may be more international than national. The question is not what foreign powers have influenced us in the past, but what we are getting closer to now. That could change the overall direction of Nepal.”
He added, “Western powers are now more visible in Nepal and I see Western influence increasing. Nepal is between two important countries, and we have to understand the sensitivity of that position.”
