The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) ( SPY ) is down -1.82% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) ( DIA ) is down -2.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) ( QQQ ) is down -1.78%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -1.84%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -1.82%.
Stock indexes are sharply lower today, with the S&P 500 falling to a 2.5-month low, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling to a 2.75-month low, and the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 2-week low.
Global stock markets fell, and crude oil prices and bond yields rose as the war in Iran entered its fourth day with no signs of abating, adding to fears of a prolonged disruption to energy markets and rising inflation.
WTI crude oil (CLJ26) rose more than +7% in 8.5 months after an adviser to the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps told state television that “we will try to cross the Strait of Hormuz,” which runs off Iran’s coast and handles a fifth of the world’s oil. Goldman Sachs estimates the real-time risk premium for crude oil at $18/bbl, assuming the impact of a six-week total shutdown on oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, debris from an Iranian drone caused a huge fire in the UAE’s major oil trading hub, Fujairah, a major oil storage center in the Middle East. Natural gas prices in Europe rose +33% to a three-year high today after Qatar shut down the world’s largest natural gas exporter, after it was hit by an Iranian drone. Ross Laffan produces about 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas.
President Trump said on Monday that military operations against Iran will continue for several weeks until all targets are met. President Trump has asked the leaders of Iran to surrender, but the head of Iran’s national security has said that he has no intention of talking to the United States.
Global bond yields are rising today, weighing on stocks amid the potential inflationary effects of rising energy prices. The 10-year German bond yield rose to a 2.5-week high of 2.814%, the 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 3-week high of 4.536%, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2-week high of 2.4%.
This week’s market focus will be on US-Iran war news, corporate earnings, and economic news. On Wednesday, February ADP employment change is expected to increase by +40,000. Also, February’s ISM services index is expected to fall -0.3 to 53.5. In addition, the Fed publishes its badge book. On Thursday, weekly initial jobless claims are expected to rise by +3,000 to 215,000. Also, Q4 non-farm productivity is expected to rise +1.8%, and Q4 unit labor costs are expected to rise +2.0%. On Friday, February non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by +60,000, and the February unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.3%. Also, February average hourly earnings are expected to be +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y. In addition, February retail sales are expected to fall -0.3% m/m and February retail sales of previous vehicles are expected to remain unchanged.
With Q4 earnings season nearing its end, more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Earnings were a positive factor for stocks, with 73% of the 481 S&P 500 companies beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to increase to +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains. Excluding top seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase +4.6%.
Markets are discounting a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Foreign stock markets are very low today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-month low and is down -3.86%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 10.5-year high and closed at -1.43%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-week low and closed at -3.06%.
Interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) fell by -16 points today. The 10-year T-note yield is up +7.1 bp to 4.106%. June T-notes fell to a 2-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield hit a 2-week high of 4.111%. Today’s energy prices raised inflation concerns and weighed on T-note prices, with WTI crude up more than +7% to an 8.5-month high. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high of 2.318%.
European government bond yields are higher. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2.5-week high of 2.814% and +7.8 bp to 2.790%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose 4.553% in 3-weeks and +14.3 bp to 4.517%.
Eurozone February CPI rose +1.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.7% y/y. February core CPI rose +2.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.2% y/y.
Swaps discount a 3% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US stock movers
Great Seven Technologies stocks are lower today. Amazon.com (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA)
are down more than -2%. Nvidia ( NVDA ) is down more than -1% as U.S. officials consider limiting the number of AI accelerators Nvidia can export to each Chinese company. Also, Alphabet ( GOOGL ) is down more than -1%, Microsoft ( MSFT ) is down -0.67%, Meta Platforms ( META ) is down -0.54%, and Apple ( AAPL ) is down -0.43%.
Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks fell today, weighing on the broader market. Western Digital ( WDC ) is down more than -6% to lead the losers on the Nasdaq 100, and Micron Technology ( MU ) is down more than -5%. Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc ( STX ) and Intel ( INTC ) are down more than -4%, and Applied Materials ( AMAT ), KLA Corp ( KLAC ), ASML Holding NV ( ASML ), Lam Research ( LRCX ), Analog Devices ( ADI ), and NXP Semiconductor NV ( NXPI ) are down more. Additionally, Marvell Technologies ( MRVL ) and Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) are down more than -2%.
Airline stocks were under pressure for a second day today as crude oil prices hit an 8.5-month high, which will push up jet fuel prices and cut airline profits. Alaska Airlines Group ( ALK ) is down more than -5%, and American Airlines Group ( AAL ), United Airlines Holdings ( UAL ), and Southwest Airlines ( LUV ) are down more than -4%. Also, Delta Air Lines ( DAL ) is down more than -3%.
Homebuilders retreated today after the 10-year T-note yield hit a 2-week high, which will push up mortgage rates and possibly dampen the prospect of home sales. Lennar (LEN), DR Horton (DHI), and Toll Brothers (TOL) are down more than -3%. Also, KB Home (KBH) and PulteGroup (PHM) are down more than -2%.
Exposed cryptocurrency stocks are falling today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -4%. Galaxy Digital Holdings ( GLXY ) and Strategy ( MSTR ) are down more than -5%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA), Coinbase Global (COIN), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -4%.
MongoDB ( MDB ) is down more than -25% after forecasting 2027 revenue of $2.86 billion to $2.90 billion, below the consensus of $2.90 billion.
Sea Latent ( SE ) is down more than -23% after reporting Q4 net income of $410.9 million, weaker than consensus of $442 million.
Surgery Partners ( SGRY ) is down more than -20% after forecasting full-year revenue of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion, well below the consensus of $3.56 billion.
Credo Technologies Group Holdings Ltd. ( CRDO ) is down more than 16% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $425 million to $435 million, the midpoint below the $430.5 million consensus.
ON Holding AG (ONON) is down more than -11% after forecasting full-year net sales of +23% in constant currency, below consensus of +25.8%.
Best Buy ( BBY ) is up more than +8% for the leading gainer on the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.61, stronger than the $2.46 consensus.
Pinterest ( PINS ) is up more than +5% after approving a new $3.5 billion share repurchase program and announcing a $1 billion strategic investment from Elliott Investment Management.
Target ( TGT ) is up +4% after full-year adjusted EPS forecasts of $7.50 to $8.50, the midpoint above consensus of $7.61.
Earnings Reports (3/3/2026)
AutoZone Inc (AZO), Best Buy Co Inc (BBY), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD), Gitlab Inc (GTLB), On Holding AG (ONON), Ross Stores Inc (ROST), Thor Industries Inc (THO), Versant Media Group Inc (VSNT), Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK).
As of the date of publication, Amir Espland had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
