2026 MLB MVP Picks: Best Longshot Bets for AL and NL

It’s MLB Awards week. Today we will take a look at the MVP market. As with the Cy Young Award, there are overwhelming favorites in both leagues.

It’s hard to make a case against Aaron Judge (+250) or Shohei Ohtani (-110). Unfortunately for Cy Young, the risk is higher for pitchers to miss time, but the risk is lower for hitters. Who knows for sure though? No one saw Cal Raleigh at the MVP spot last year, and even with Judge having another monster season, he came close.

Of the four Cy Young and MVP candidates, Judge at +250 is the only one they would consider playing between the SP injury risk and Ohtani’s exorbitant price. But in this article, we’ll look at some more long-term MVP choices.

Gunnar Henderson (½ unit +2000 BetRivers)

The 24-year-old Orioles shortstop had a monster performance in 2025, hitting 37 home runs, 210 combined RBIs, 21 stolen bases, and hitting .281.

But most of that production came before the All-Star break, and last year he was down to 17 home runs and 153 runs plus RBI. We recently learned that he suffered from shoulder impingement syndrome throughout the season, but is now fully healthy. Of course, we have no way of confirming this, but we’re looking for an upside here, and Gunnar delivers it in spades. He’s still only 24 years old and is projected to be either the leadoff hitter or second behind Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso.

Junior Caminero (½ unit +2500 BetMGM)

Did Caminero’s incredible 2025 season somehow fly under the radar? He hit .264/.311/.535 with 45 home runs and 110 RBI in his mid-season, turning 22.

Only three players in MLB history (Eddie Matthews, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Joe Dimaggio) have hit that many dingers in a season at their age or younger, and a fourth player (Johnny Bench) has hit the same number. This is a really impressive club. The downside now is that the Rays are returning to the antiseptic dome at Humid Yankee Stadium. This likely won’t have much of an impact on Caminero’s home runs, as he hit more home runs on the road last year than he did at Steinbrenner Field. However, he hit .218 on the road and .313 at home, which probably explains the high price tag here.

But he could get better. He’s still only 22! Sign up!

Ronald Acuna Jr. (½ unit +1200 Caesar)

Again, I’m just going after players with upside and players who have more in the MLB than Acuna. After all, he hit .337 with 41 home runs and 73 stolen bases in 2024. Of course, he suffered a knee injury in 2024 for the second time in his career.

He missed time again in 2025, and while he was still very good (.403 wOBA vs. .428 in 2023), he wasn’t as explosive as he was, hitting 21 home runs and nine stolen bases in 95 games. But again, isn’t there a bit of déjà vu? His 2023 blowout came two years after his first knee surgery and (by his standards) a relatively decent 2022 return. I don’t think he would prefer to repeat this trick since he is now 28 years old. But since we’re looking for a 90th percentile result here, I like the low-cost opportunity for that.

Kyle Tucker (¼ unit, +4000 BetRivers)

Well, none of these will work if Shohei does Shohei things.

But what if Ohtani is just great, crazy, and doesn’t even have the best record on his team? If some of his home runs turn into doubles, it could lead to Tucker’s second-hole RBI totals reaching crazy levels. The new Dodgers superstar has a very calm, low-Q profile, and despite having a season ravaged by two injuries, he still remains one of the best hitters in the game. He had a 12.7 barrel percentage last year, nearly identical BB% (14.6%) and K% (14.7%), and 25 steals in 136 games.