Bitcoin’s wild ride makes this options strategy strictly for profit and passion seekers


I write about options collars regularly here. My emphasis in every article so far is what I emphasize in almost all of my investing work: risk management, save it first, then grow it as much as you can.

This time around, the collar I’m going to show you is, shall we say, a little on the wild side. Pick up the wallet.

First, I’ll show you the layout of the collar, then I’ll explain the bells and whistles surrounding it and how it’s likely to affect it. I deal with Bitcoin (BTCUSD), specifically the Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), the largest Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) around.

The first thing to notice is the “Grade IV” in the image below, which is about 37%. This means that IBIT is actually at the lowest 37% of its 12-month volatility range. As I see it, a volatile asset class like this is always a potential collar strategy, because the portion of a covered call option on the collar can easily pay for whatever protection I employ.

The collar is multiplied by $60 on the call side and $30 on the put side. As I explained below, the cost is very low to go abroad for more than six months. That’s because, in this case, unlike most of my collar presentations, I’m taking 25% more damage than the current level.

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In return, I get more than 50%, and the cost of options is very low, only about 2.4%. This is two or three times less than most examples I have shown in the past. But this is the wild side!

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www.barchart.com

The IBIT technical chart is ideal for a collar. Or as I refer to it, the “dog collar.” I use this term to describe a stock or ETF that is low in price, shows minimal signs of short-term downside, and has minimal average volatility.

IBIT currently checks all three of these boxes. It landed back in this area in 2024 and stayed there for months. This forms a strong support level in the $32 to $35 area, from where it is written on Monday morning.

I can strike at $35 or just below, but this protection is more expensive than $30, as shown above. This is cheap “insurance” against further declines in IBIT, but I still limit my losses to 25%. Bitcoin is down 50% since October, to put that into perspective.

That allows for more upside, all the way to $60, which would still be $12 below the 2025 high.

The outlook for Bitcoin and IBIT remains a contest between significant institutional flows and long-term accumulation narratives. The bear case is caused by a historic contraction in exchange-traded fund flows, especially to the largest. Since late January, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged nearly $4.5 billion in net outflows, shedding nearly $10 billion from their peak assets. The selloff reinforced Bitcoin’s recent association with high-beta tech stocks rather than its role as “digital gold.”

In contrast, the bull case indicates a recent change in this trend, with more than $1 billion in new investments in ETFs in late February. IBIT continues to dominate the space, holding nearly 60% of the underlying Bitcoin.

Bales argues that supply constraints and the growth of institutional discretion create a structural floor. If Bitcoin can decisively break through the $70,000 resistance, it may signal a rally towards new highs.

But even in my wildest moments as an investor, I still insist on knowing my worst-case scenario in advance. Even if I were a more aggressive investor, I would still want to hold my assets in sharp declines. In this case, 25% seems to be the right place for a collar on volatile assets.

Created by Rob Isbitts ROAR ScoreBased on his 40+ years of technical analysis experience. ROAR helps DIY investors manage risk and build their portfolios. For Rob’s written research, see ETFYourself.com.

As of the date of publication, Rob Asbett had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

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