How long can Israel sustain a military conflict with Iran? | Israel-Iran conflict news

The leaders of Israel and the United States have indicated that the conflict against Iran could continue for weeks.

The US, led by President Donald Trump, has stressed that this will not be a problem and that its military has an extended combat capability. But for Israel, already exhausted by the cost of the genocide in Gaza, as well as wars or attacks in Lebanon, Syria and the previous round with Iran, a protracted conflict could prove more costly.

Since attacking Iran on Saturday, Israel has endured repeated missile and drone attacks, prompting widespread airstrike warnings, school closures and the mobilization of tens of thousands of reservists.

Cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv have faced constant attacks, emergency services have been stretched and a public unused to war on the scale their government has imposed on others has spent the past few days in and out of bomb shelters.

For the time being, the spirit of war is high. Interviews with Israelis in most major cities show a hunger to confront an enemy the public has been told for decades to exterminate. Barring the Left, politicians have flocked to the government’s banner.

“As soon as the war started, Israel was engulfed in a wave of militarism,” said Shir Hever, an Israeli political economist.

“This (June 2025 12-day war) was not the same. Then, it was mostly fear, existential fear that Iran could destroy Israel. Now, it’s gung-ho militarism and overconfidence. War critics — few and far between — recommend that even (Israeli Prime Minister) Netanyahu can decide when Israel can end the war.”

Support for the war is part of what many see as the radicalization of Israeli society. Formerly fringe right-wing politicians have made their way into the center of government, political polarization and economic pressures are accelerating the flow of the country’s young and talented.

Remainers already see Iran as their country’s fundamental enemy, and weeks of war could further militarize society.

“It’s like the UK blitz in World War II,” said Daniel Bar-Tall, an academic at Tel Aviv University.

“Then, the British agreed to the bombing because they saw that they were fighting this ultimate evil. Israelis feel the same way. We are taught from birth to believe that Iran is evil, reinforced through kindergarten, high school and the army.”

For Bar-Tal, it is impossible to imagine what kind of Israeli society might emerge from weeks of renewed war, as long as the country’s past moral affirmation of its founding ethos has not been eroded by the massacres committed during the 1948 Nakba or the more recent Gaza genocide.

“Now, we have a generation that is even more militarized and more right-wing, Netanyahu is telling us that we now have to live by the sword. This is more proof that Israel needs enemies to survive.”

Bombs and guns

Aside from the social consequences, Israel has military calculations to take into account if the war drags on.

A more pressing issue is how long Israel can sustain the current level of warfare against an adversary of Iran’s size and military might. It will be influenced by the support it receives from its allies such as the US and Europe and whether its defenses will be exhausted before Iran, said defense analyst Hamzeh Attar.

“In the first three days of the war, Iran fired more than 200 ballistic missiles at Israel,” he told Al Jazeera. “To put that into context, during the 12-day war, they launched about 500, each of which Israel had to counter by launching an interceptor rocket. That was probably more than Israel was capable of countering, so, without US help, it probably would have lost control of its airspace.”

Israel has three different air defense systems: Iron Dome, for short-range rockets and artillery; David’s Sling to counter medium-range rockets and cruise missiles; and Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, designed to intercept ballistic missiles

The Israelis do not disclose the number of interceptors they have in stock, but Israel began to run low on interceptor stocks during the 12-day war, indicating that maintaining high levels of interceptors would become more difficult if the war continued for a longer period. This leads to a rationing of deterrents and a focus on protecting military and political targets, which can lead to more civilian casualties.

According to Israeli and US sources, Attar said Iran has been producing ballistic missiles at a rate of 100 per month since the June conflict, indicating that Tehran has already amassed a significant stockpile.

However, Attar was quick to point out that Iran’s threat is based on the type of ballistic missiles it possesses.

“We don’t know what kind of ballistic missiles,” Attar said, describing different types of missiles: long-range, reaching as far as Greece and the Mediterranean; Middle range, reaching Israel; and short-range, which could target the Gulf states.

“Also, we don’t know how many (missiles) they (Iran) had before the 12-day war, how many were destroyed during that war or how many launchers they have,” Attar added. “If you don’t have launchers that target the US and Israel, it doesn’t matter how many missiles you have. It’s like having bullets without a rifle.”

Economic considerations

Nearly two years of continuous war have taken their toll on Israel’s economy, analysts warn, with the cost of munitions weighing on the Israeli purse and the deployment of hundreds of thousands of reservists for much longer than any planners originally envisioned.

Israel’s spending on the wars in Lebanon and Gaza is reported to reach $31bn in 2024, leading to the country’s largest budget deficit in years. Preliminary figures for 2025 show that the cost of the war will reach $55 billion.

The pressure on the economy led to a downgrade of Israel’s sovereign credit rating in 2024 by all three major credit rating agencies.

“Israel is facing a debt crisis, an energy crisis, a transportation crisis, (and) a health care crisis,” Hever said.

But political economists warn that none of these will be enough to stop Israel’s military operations on their own. “It’s not a question of economics, but a question of technology.”

“If the US is supplying Israel with sophisticated weapons that they can load themselves, target themselves and kill from a distance where soldiers don’t need to risk their lives, I don’t see how an economic crisis inside Israel would be enough to deter an Israeli invasion,” he said.