Darmesh Shah, Head of Technical Research, ICICI Securities
With the Nifty falling below the psychological mark of 25,000, a strong support has been placed in the 24,400-24,300 zone, which is a composite of the 20-month consumer moving average (EMA) held after the post-Covid lows – and the 80% retracement of Jan 26-Jan. (23,935-26,373). Meanwhile, on the upside, 25,200 will act as immediate resistance.
In the last four decades, there have been six major geopolitical tensions. On each occasion, a great ending was created when the tension surrounding the event was resolved. Investing in similar fearful reactions with a long-term mindset was beneficial. In the current scenario, after the knee-jerk reaction, we believe the market will stabilize.
We advise that dips should be invested to build a quality portfolio from a medium to long term perspective. Pullback options will remain open till Nifty maintains the key support level of 24,100.
Rochit Jain, Vice President, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The Nifty had already breached the 200-day EMA support of 25,240 last weekend, and the negative global news flow led to a breach of the psychological support of 25,000. Back-to-back support breaches indicate a near-term downtrend for our markets. Immediate supports for Nifty are placed at 24570 and 24330 which is the August 2025 swing low.
The near-term trend remains negative, but international news flows are likely to dominate the short-term trend for equity markets. Global geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, FII selling and falling rupee are all negative factors for equity markets. Thus, markets are likely to trade with high volatility. As long as the indicator is below 25,000-25,100, weakness can be seen towards the 24,400-24,350 zones, while the barriers are moved to 25,100 and then 25,250. Amul Atawal, VP – Technical Research, Kotak Securities
Currently, the market is trading significantly above both the short-term and medium-term averages, and on the daily charts, it appears to be in a bearish formation, indicating a largely negative outlook.
We believe that for positional traders, 24,600 will act as an important support zone. If the market breaks below this level, the correction could continue up to 24,300. Further losses continue, potentially pushing the index down to 24,000.
On the downside, 25,000 remains an important resistance zone for the bulls. The current market structure is highly volatile, and is expected to remain volatile for the foreseeable future.
