War rages across the Middle East. Oil prices are rising. Asian stock markets took a hit. And yet, Bitcoin is still standing above $66,000 – a fact that has caught the attention of analysts who watch the market closely.
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Stay calm where there should be panic
The group most visible in moments of market stress are what analysts call short holders — people who bought Bitcoin recently and are more likely to sell quickly when things go wrong.
According to reports from data platform CryptoQuant, the group has remained unusually quiet. When Bitcoin fell to the $63,000-$64,000 range on February 28, the exchange’s influx of recent buyers barely budged. There was no big wave of sales. No bunch of coins rushed to the exchange at a loss.
This was not the case in February. Reports say that on February 5-6, short holders sent 89,000 BTC to the exchange at a loss in a single 24-hour window. It was a panic event. Since then, such loss-based transfers have steadily declined — and the Iran escalation has not reversed that trend.
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno, who tracked the data, says that’s important because markets tend to find their feet after nervous sellers exit.
If currency inflows from short-term holders remain low, it could signal seller fatigue and set the stage for a price recovery. A sudden jump in these imports indicates that the sale is not complete.
What History Says About War and Bitcoin
This is not the first time that Bitcoin has been tested in an armed conflict. According to market analyst Ted Pillows, this pattern has played out twice before.
When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin fell and then rose 40%. When Israel attacked Iran in June 2025, Bitcoin fell again, before gaining 25%.
February 2022: Russia invades Ukraine.
▫️ $BTC first they dropped and then 40% gathered.
June 2025: Israel attacks Iran.
▫️ Bitcoin first dropped and then increased by 25%.
February 2026: The US attacks Iran.
Will a similar pattern repeat itself? pic.twitter.com/b8FLF4aR9p
— Ted (@TedPillows) February 28, 2026
Now, after the joint attacks of the US and Israel on Iran in February 2026, Bitcoin has once again retreated. Pillows is now asking if the same type of return can be observed a third time.
The current conflict is much bigger than those previous points. According to reports, American and Israeli forces hit more than 2,000 targets in 131 cities and regions of Iran, hitting nuclear sites, missile systems, and high-ranking military figures, including Iran’s supreme leader.
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Bitcoin price action
Iran responded with missiles and drones targeting Israel, US bases and several Gulf countries. The war took place in Lebanon, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Cyprus and a British military base.
Bitcoin has fallen 3.5% since February 26, bringing its price to $65,540. It briefly touched $63,030 on February 28 before breaking above $65,000.
Given the scale of what is happening on the ground, this kind of price movement is relatively limited.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
