The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran that began over the weekend rattled global markets and sent prices down in the S&P 500 (GSPC), oil and gold.
President Trump, meanwhile, has vowed that the war could last four to five weeks – or even “forever” with existing weapons stockpiles, suggesting that instability will continue.
In fact, stocks fell sharply on Tuesday amid fresh attacks that raised fears of an outbreak of war.
But a Yahoo Finance analysis of its three key markets — oil, gold and stocks — found a familiar pattern in past moments of geopolitical shock: Prices often spiked in the first days of trading but returned to normal within weeks, even as the war dragged on.
The review covers nine key moments in recent history, starting with Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait through the recent arrest of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. It found that the state of these three markets when the war began was very different a month later.
Smoke rises after an attack in Tehran, capital of Iran, on March 3, 2026. ·ATTA KENARE via Getty Images
Perhaps the best example occurred last June during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. During this war, US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and bombed Iranian nuclear sites.
Hostilities began on June 13, 2025, with immediate jumps in oil and gold prices and declines in stocks. After 30 trading days, all three markets had moved in the opposite direction.
The European Brent crude oil price rose nearly 7.3% between June 12 and 13. But prices were actually 0.6% lower at the end of 30 trading days, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s analysis of prices.
The pattern was similar to gold. Yahoo Finance’s own data there shows a one-day move of 1.49% during this dispute, followed by a 30-day decline of 1.39%.
The S&P 500 followed a similar pattern – but in reverse – falling 1.13% in the first day of trading after the bombs started falling, then rising 5.70% after 30 days of trading.
The impact of Iran’s attacks so far has followed an early historical pattern.
The Brent crude oil market ended last Friday at $72.48 a barrel. It ended Monday at $78.16, a jump of more than 7.8%. Gold was up nearly 2.7% over the same time frame.
The S&P 500, meanwhile, started in the red on Monday and ended the first day of trading as the Strikers started in the green before falling significantly in early trading on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, few analysts were ready to predict where prices would end up.
“We just don’t have enough information on the terms of how long this will last, or what the long-term effects will be,” SEI Chief Investment Officer Jim Smigel said on Yahoo Finance on Monday, as he urged individual investors to “take a breath, don’t do anything big.”
It remains to be seen whether this conflict will continue with previous market patterns. This weekend’s attacks in Iran have already been significantly more widespread than the 12-day war, as well as more consequential – especially in the assassination of Ali Hosseini Khamenei, who has served as Iran’s supreme leader since 1989.
President Donald Trump is seen during a medal ceremony in the East Room of the White House on March 2. ·Anadolu via Getty Images
No matter the immediate phases and dynamics of this conflict, first-day price changes are less relevant in moments of global stress than where prices last a month.
In the events analyzed by Yahoo Finance for this story, the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S. intervention in Libya, and the 2003 Iraq war, the direction in which prices moved one day later matched less than 56% of the time a month later.
Prices often only change moderately after a month’s time, even if they had a big spike on the first day, the analysis found.
For example, gold rose 6.85% on the first trading day after the September 11, 2001 attacks, but then fell. It was up a very modest 2.28% over the 30-day period.
Similarly, oil prices surged more than 34% days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but after 30 trading days, fell back down to just 1.53%.
It’s a lesson that energy analysts have returned to in recent days.
“We were reminded that oil prices rose about a week after the Russian attack on Ukraine,” Chris Veron wrote in a Strategas note.
At the end of the day, he wrote, “we would still be more inclined to be buyers of the rebound among energy equities in the coming weeks.”
Tankers are seen off the coast of the United Arab Emirates on March 3 as Iran vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters/Amer Alfike) ·Reuters / Reuters
This was part of a widespread expectation that price moderation might be at an end, although recent history includes one notable exception.
Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 led to price swings on the first day that not only stalled – but grew throughout the month of trading.
The shock began when then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s forces massed at the Kuwaiti border and then crossed on August 2. Oil prices rose 11.64% a day later – then rose nearly 57% over the 30-day period.
Similarly, the S&P 500 fell 1.14% the day after the dispute and fell further in the following weeks, falling more than 10% after 30 days.
But even there, prices finally rebounded a few months later when allies pulled Iraqi troops out of Kuwait and Hussein’s army returned to Baghdad.
Ben Varskull is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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