The outcome and duration of the Middle East war may be decided by a grim calculation based on the size of Iran’s drone and missile stockpile versus the vital air defense munitions held by the United States, Israel and the Gulf States, analysts and officials say.
Since Saturday, Iran and its allies have sought to counter the intense joint US-Israeli offensive with more than 1,000 strikes against targets in nearly a dozen countries spread over 1,200 miles. With its aging air force unable to compete with those of Israel and the United States, Tehran has relied on its arsenal of missiles and drones.
The geographical extent of Iran’s retaliatory strikes has made the conflict the largest in the Middle East since World War II. Israeli and American planes and missiles have attacked hundreds of sites across Iran, without losing any aircraft to hostile fire.
The United States and Israel are trying to destroy as much of Iran’s missile infrastructure and arsenals as possible, targeting launchers, warehouses and personnel.
Stacie Pettyjohn, defense program director at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, said the conflict had become “a kind of salvo contest,” a military strategic concept that describes an exchange of simultaneous volleys from a large number of precision-guided weapons between opposing forces.
“The question is who has the deepest magazines of key weapons, and the big question is how deep Iran’s inventories are,” Pettyjohn said.
Sirens sounded over Jerusalem again on Tuesday, with multiple explosions as interceptor missiles destroyed incoming missiles, but Iranian attacks on Israel, where 11 people have been killed and more than 100 wounded since the war began, have become less frequent in the past 36 hours.
Analysts suggest that Iran, where the Red Crescent said more than 787 people have been killed, may be trying to preserve its missile stockpile or simply cannot fire anymore.
“Iran has fewer weapons that can hit Israel than those attacking the Persian Gulf, and many drones heading toward Israel are being intercepted,” Petttyjohn said.
“There may also be some disarray that the Iranians are facing, as they suffer decapitation attacks (killing senior commanders) and therefore are not operating in a coordinated manner. They are simply getting what they can, when they can.”
Tehran’s strategy may be to try to wear down its enemies by undermining citizens’ morale and increasing the financial costs of the conflict.
“There is no 100 percent defense. It’s a war of attrition… If a single missile hits something like a university, a hospital or a power plant, it can be very costly,” said Tal Inbar, a senior researcher at the Israel-based Missile Defense Advisory Alliance.
During the 12-day war with Iran last summer, when massive barrages of missiles were fired at Israel, crucial weapons in Israel were depleted, some reports have suggested.
“In previous wars and engagements, the duration has been determined in part by the number of (air defense missiles) we had… You can never have enough interceptors,” Inbar said.
All those involved in the current conflict recognize the importance of the fierce air battle and are making strenuous efforts to reassure anxious citizens.
The United Arab Emirates on Tuesday issued a lengthy statement refuting reports that it was running out of crucial interceptor missiles. “The United Arab Emirates… maintains a robust strategic munitions arsenal, ensuring sustained interception and response capabilities over prolonged periods,” he said.
On Monday, the United Arab Emirates said it had so far destroyed 161 of the 174 ballistic missiles launched towards the country, while the rest had fallen into the sea. Of a total of 689 Iranian drones, 645 were intercepted and eight cruise missiles destroyed, “causing some collateral damage.”
Iranian attacks have also been launched against US military and civilian infrastructure sites in Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Oman. International hotels in Dubai have been attacked and set on fire.
Oil infrastructure was damaged in Saudi Arabia and drones targeted a British military base in Cyprus.
Qatar also issued a statement describing the “detection of multiple air and missile targets and the successful interception of the majority.” The Defense Ministry said it had shot down two Iranian fighter jets, three cruise missiles, 98 of 101 ballistic missiles and 24 of 39 drones.
“It’s very difficult to know the level of inventories (of these weapons) in the Gulf, but many of them are running out and some difficult decisions will soon have to be made about what to protect,” said Kelly Grieco, a strategic and military analyst at the Stimson Center in Washington.
“The Iranians know this, and that’s why their attacks are not as big. Their goal is to keep the campaign going. It’s death by a thousand cuts, and that’s why it’s the preferable strategy for the weaker (fighters) in the fight.”
Pettyjohn said that if air defense reserves were depleted, that could push Israel and the United States to halt offensive operations and try to reach some kind of negotiated agreement.
“The United States could withdraw its forces, Israel clearly cannot, but it is the Gulf States that are now bearing the brunt and could continue to be hit… If Iran runs out of missiles… they may have to sue for peace and try to survive and eventually rebuild their capabilities over time.” Pettyjohn said.
The enormous cost of the weapons involved and their limited availability is also relevant. Grieco estimates that intercepting a drone costs five times more than producing one, while stocks of the most advanced weapons manufactured in the United States are very limited and can only be replenished slowly. This type of ammunition is in high demand in other places, such as Ukraine or Taiwan.
