As the United States and its allies confront Iran’s response to President Donald Trump’s renewed bombing of the Middle East, allied air forces must find a solution to a growing problem: drones.
Cheap and easy to produce, Iran’s Shahed drones are unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) used to overcome air defenses along with other missiles. They have been used to successfully bomb a US embassy, a radar system, an airport and a skyscraper, videos on social media show. The issue, experts say, is the long-term ability to intercept them.
“The threat from one-way strike unmanned aerial vehicles remains persistent,” Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a briefing Monday. “Our systems have proven effective in countering these platforms, engaging targets quickly.”
The United States has not released data on the munitions it engaged and shot down. Information from the UAE Ministry of Defense shows that Iran has launched hundreds of Shahed drones against the Gulf State, of which just over 90% have been intercepted.
Those interceptions have come at a high cost. The United States and its allies typically deploy aircraft or the Patriot air defense system to protect against bombing, but while the price of a Shahed is estimated at $30,000 to $50,000, an interceptor can cost 10 times as much or more and deplete already dwindling reserves.
“If this continues any longer, they’re probably going to have to find more sustainable ways to do it,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank.
Grieco calculated that for every dollar Iran spent making a Shahed drone, it costs the United Arab Emirates between $20 and $28 to intercept it, based on available data.
“Iran literally built them for a war like this,” said Kyle Glen, a researcher at the Center for Information Resilience, a London-based nonprofit.
The United States and Israel have unleashed a wave of fire on Iran since the military operation began overnight Friday, targeting its naval bases and ballistic missile storage sites to limit its ability to respond. Iran retaliated by launching hundreds of drones and missiles at US bases, airports and energy infrastructure, apparently in an attempt to inflict a political and economic cost on the United States and its allies.
Iran has always counted on facing a superior military, Glen said. That has pushed him to explore asymmetric warfare, in which smaller or technologically inferior forces look for ways to thwart or exhaust the enemy.
Drones are a good example. The Shahed can be manufactured inexpensively with dual-use components and launched from the back of a truck. Unlike missiles, which require vast infrastructure, drones can be assembled covertly.
Russia saw the benefits of Shahed drones early. In November 2022, it purchased the technology and 6,000 units for $1.75 billion from Iran, according to a report by C4ADS, a nonprofit global security organization based in Washington.
“Russia has developed these weapons much more than Iran in recent years,” Glen said.
The Russians have launched 57,000 such drones against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure so far, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video speech on Saturday. Their tell-tale hum has become so ubiquitous in Ukrainian skies that they are colloquially known as “mopeds.”
Ukraine has built a multi-pronged system that includes mobile groups, interceptor drones and other missiles to defend against that type of weapon, which Russia has continued to improve.
“Thanks to the fact that the Shahed passed its baptism of fire in Ukraine, they managed to substantially improve it, modernize it, install additional communication channels, protection against electronic warfare systems, that is, test this weapon in battle,” said Colonel Yuri Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian air force.
Despite Ukraine’s unique experience, the partners have not directly requested help to counter the Shaheds, Zelenskyy said in a voice note in response to journalists’ questions.
“In terms of our aerial and drone operators, we have very experienced personnel,” he said. “We are ready to share this knowledge.”
Using expensive and difficult-to-manufacture methods to shoot down such an unsophisticated weapon points to the United States’ apparent inability to learn lessons from Ukraine, said George Barros, a senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.
“None of these things are novel techniques,” Barros said.
This puts the United States in a vulnerable position as the number of global conflicts grows and allies clamor for Patriot interceptors, of which the United States produces only about 600 a year, Barros said.
Grieco of the Stimson Center said: “For 30 years, the United States and other Western air forces had easily obtained air superiority – if not air supremacy – over enemy battlefields and therefore neglected to invest in air and missile defense capabilities. And what we have discovered is that it is really difficult to increase this production.”
Meanwhile, American adversaries are increasing their drone production. Even if most drones and missiles are intercepted, those that pierce defenses can cause deadly damage. The Iranians may choose to engage in a war of attrition, as the Russians have done, firing their cheap munitions for as long as possible while watching American defensive arsenals shrink.
Other countries will take note. Last year, Ukrainian intelligence services warned that North Korea may have received Shahed drone technology from Russia. Iran also provided the weapon to the Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, according to the Open Source Munitions Portal, a weapons tracking project. Seeing its effectiveness, other cash-strapped schemes may be inspired to create their own versions.
“Everything indicates that this is a serious threat to the world, to the West and to stability,” said Omar Al-Ghusbi, an analyst at C4ADS and co-author of the Shahed report. “I don’t see this going away anytime soon.”
