According to a report by Strive strategist Joe Burnett, artificial intelligence-driven technological deflation could push bitcoin above $10 million within a decade by pressuring central banks to expand the money supply.
Burnett, Bitcoin’s vice president of strategy, said in a report published on Monday that faster productivity growth from AI will lower prices across goods and services, reduce margins and prompt policymakers to respond with sustained monetary expansion. He wrote, his “main case” calls for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $11 million in the first quarter of 2036.
“My base case for Q1 2036 is $11 million per Bitcoin.”
The predictions are based on a number of aggressive assumptions, including that Bitcoin will grow to about 12% of the value of global financial assets and that global wealth will grow by 7% annually until 2036. While Bitcoin currently accounts for about 0.2% of all financial assets, this represents an increase of more than 176 times the capitalization of Bitcoin in the future village of the Bitcoin30 market. trillion
Nick Pukrin, co-founder and lead market analyst at educational platform Coin Bureau, told Cointelegraph that the prediction means Bitcoin will become a global reserve asset alongside structurally sound monetary policy in the next decade.
“The prediction means that Bitcoin will be worth about 10 times the current US money supply M2, about four times the US stock market today, and about twice the current global GDP.”
The forecast also assumes a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 53% per year, which is not unprecedented given Bitcoin’s 60% CAGR between 2015 and 2024, but can expect a decline due to market capitalization, Pukrin added.
AI deflation engine leads to structural monetary expansion
Burnett’s paper focuses on what he describes as the “engine of AI deflation,” arguing that artificial automation and cost-cutting could create persistent deflationary pressures.
In a debt-based credit system, sustained deflation could worsen credit markets because wages and asset prices could fall while debt obligations remain fixed in nominal terms, he wrote, potentially prompting central banks and fiscal authorities to add liquidity to avoid a deflationary spiral.
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“In a debt-based credit framework, persistent deflation destabilizes credit markets as wages and asset prices fall, while mortgages, corporate loans and government debt remain fixed in nominal terms,” Burnett said.
“As AI drives real economic deflation, central banks and fiscal authorities expand liquidity to prevent a deflationary spiral.”
Burnett said this leads to a constant increase in money relative to the supply of scarce assets.
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The emergence of digital credit to increase the demand for Bitcoin
The report also points to what Burnett calls the emergence of “digital debt” models promoted by companies such as Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
Digital debt provides investors with US dollar income through publicly traded securities with large Bitcoin balances issued by treasury companies as a means of attracting capital to acquire more Bitcoin.
Burnet envisions a digital credit product that creates a “reflexive loop” between global demand for income and the accumulation of bitcoin, marking “the first stage of a credit system built on scarce money.”
However, the $11 million forecast is higher than most prominent scenarios that use shorter time horizons. For example, ARK Invest in November 2025 predicted a Bitcoin price target of $1.5 million in 2030 and $300,000 in a bearish scenario.
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