Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing a new “death cross” on its three-day chart, marking the first appearance of a bearish signal since June 2022.
Basic considerations:
BTC’s death cross was before the 35% drop
A death cross pattern occurs when the short-term 50-period moving average crosses the long-term 200-period moving average, and it sometimes predicts further weakness in the near term.
For example, in 2022, Bitcoin’s 50-200 MA crossover on the three-day chart came before a steep slide of about 50%, and BTC eventually reached $15,480.
In total, BTC has formed the death cross three times by 2026. The average return over the following one month, three and 12 months was approximately -35%, -20%, +30% respectively.
Bitcoin has fallen an average of about 80% from its peak over these three periods. As of March 2026, BTC has already fallen nearly 50% since its all-time high of around $126,270 five months ago.
related to: Bitcoin’s slide is slowing, but the market is still in the game: Analysts
It suggests that BTC is now entering the “brutal part of a bear market,” according to analyst Mister Crypto.
This is in line with market commentators who see Bitcoin eventually bottoming out in the $30,000-$45,000 range.
Bitcoin ETFs draw $458.20 million despite Middle East turmoil
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $458.20 million in net inflows on Monday, according to data from Farside Investors, indicating dip buying has returned after weeks of withdrawal.
The funds came as Bitcoin’s volatility increased after the outbreak in the Middle East.
After the US and Israeli attacks on February 28, Iran said it would close the Strait of Hormuz and warned it would attack ships trying to cross, raising fresh concerns about energy prices, supply chain stability and shipping routes.
However, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, stated that this could eventually increase the price of Bitcoin.
In a recent essay, Hayes said a prolonged U.S. involvement could eventually push policymakers toward easier money.
He wrote that the longer US President Donald Trump engages in “Iranian nation-building,” the more likely the Fed will “lower the price and increase the money supply.”
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