Charles Myers: Geopolitical Risk Has No Patterns, America First Is Changing US Foreign Relations, and the Bond Market Is Key to Economic Stability

Basic considerations

• Geopolitical risk is inherently unpredictable due to the unique motivations and objectives of different actors.
• The Trump administration has marked a significant shift in foreign policy toward imperialism and protectionism.
• The “America First” policy combines an aggressive foreign policy with domestic priorities.
• Global investors are questioning the US’s status as a safe haven.
• Despite the fears, the US economy is in good shape and is expected to grow by around 3% this year.
• Current estimates of the US economic downturn may be overstated due to effective economic barriers.
• The bond market serves as an important proxy for the US economy and influences government actions.
• If diplomacy with Iran fails, a major military attack is foreseen.
• If diplomatic efforts falter, smaller military actions may be used to pressure Iran.
• If diplomatic options are exhausted, a large-scale military attack on Iran may take place in April.
• The unpredictable nature of geopolitical events creates challenges for investment strategies.
• The US political climate significantly affects investor sentiment and market trends.
• The “America First” doctrine has broad implications for international relations and economic policy.
• The influence of the bond market on economic policy is important to maintain stability.
• Possible military actions against Iran are closely related to the success or failure of diplomatic efforts.

Introduction of guests

Charles Myers is the founder and chairman of Signum Global Advisors. He served as a senior foreign policy advisor to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. With more than 30 years in global financial markets, he was previously vice chairman of Evercore and founding partner and head of its institutional equities business.

The unpredictable nature of geopolitical risk

• Geopolitical risk has no obvious patterns due to the unique motivations and objectives of different actors.

• The truth is that AI is, because you know, eventually it recognizes patterns, which to your question, there is no pattern in geopolitical risk, because again, the goals and the results of the motivations of the actors are always different.

  – Charles Myers

• Understanding the complexity of geopolitical risk is critical to assessing market dynamics.
• The unpredictable nature of geopolitical events creates challenges for investment strategies.
• Investors should consider the different motivations and goals of geopolitical actors.
• Geopolitical risk can affect market volatility and investor sentiment.

• There are really no discernible patterns in geopolitical risk

  – Charles Myers

• The lack of patterns in geopolitical risk requires a flexible approach to investment strategies.

Changes in US foreign policy under Trump

• The Trump administration’s foreign policy represents a significant shift toward imperialism and protectionism.

• I think looking back in three years, we’ll probably realize that the Trump administration has been the most expansionist and imperialist since George W. Bush.

  – Charles Myers

• An “America First” policy includes both domestic priorities and an aggressive foreign policy stance.

• The truth is that America first has always been about foreign policy, and within this very aggressive protectionism is yet another tariff policy that is very aggressively enforced around the world.

  – Charles Myers

• This change has implications for global geopolitics and historical comparisons with previous administrations.
• The “America First” doctrine has broad implications for international relations and economic policy.
• The aggressive protectionism associated with the “America First” policy is practiced worldwide.
• Understanding the implications of the Trump administration’s policies is critical to geopolitical analysis.

Investor sentiment and the US as a safe haven

• Global investors are growing concerned about the safe haven status of the United States.

• I would say right now, and really in the last couple of months, the two biggest trends we’re seeing with global investors… first is the serious questioning of the safe haven status of the United States.

  – Charles Myers

• The US political climate significantly affects investor sentiment and market trends.
• Despite the concerns, the US economy is in good shape and is expected to grow by around 3% this year.

• I think these fears are overblown … the US economy is in very good shape and will probably grow by about 3% this year.

  – Charles Myers

• Current estimates of the US economic downturn may be overstated due to effective economic barriers.
• The bond market serves as an important proxy for the US economy and influences government actions.

• The only haven that really works in the US today and for the past thirteen months has been the bond market.

  – Charles Myers

The role of the bond market in economic stability

• The bond market is currently a major facet of the US economy and influences government actions.

• The only haven that really works in the US today and for the past thirteen months has been the bond market.

  – Charles Myers

• The influence of the bond market on economic policy is important to maintain stability.
• It is important to understand how the bond market affects economic policy and government decision-making.
• The role of the bond market in economic governance and stability is a key factor in evaluating the US economy.
• The effectiveness of the bond market as a safe haven reflects the stability of the US economy.
• The influence of the bond market on government actions underscores its importance in economic analysis.

• Backers are up and running.

  – Charles Myers

Possible military operations against Iran

• If diplomacy fails, we should expect a major military attack against Iran.

• If diplomacy fails so far, and say right after the meeting between President Trump and President Xi in early April … expect a major shock that will eventually lead to the regime’s collapse.

  – Charles Myers

• If diplomatic efforts fail, a smaller military strike may be used to pressure Iran.

• A smaller military strike might do more to try to force Iran’s hand, but if diplomacy fails…

  – Charles Myers

• A major military attack on Iran is likely to take place in April, after diplomatic options have been exhausted.

• I think it probably puts a bigger military strike on the table in April and what it looks like… when Trump has exhausted all diplomatic and other options.

  – Charles Myers

• Understanding the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran is critical to assessing potential military action.
• The potential for military action against Iran is closely tied to the success or failure of diplomatic efforts.
• Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are of major importance for market analysis.

The impact of “America First” on international relations

• The “America First” policy combines an aggressive foreign policy with domestic priorities.

• The truth is that America first has always been about foreign policy, and within this very aggressive protectionism is yet another tariff policy that is very aggressively enforced around the world.

  – Charles Myers

• The “America First” doctrine has broad implications for international relations and economic policy.
• The aggressive protectionism associated with the “America First” policy is practiced worldwide.
• Understanding the implications of America First policy is important for geopolitical analysis.
• The impact of the “America First” policy on international relations is the main factor in the assessment of global geopolitics.
• The two-pronged focus of the “America First” policy demonstrates its broader implications for international relations.
• The integration of domestic and foreign priorities in the America First policy underscores its importance in geopolitical debates.

Economic forecasts for the US

• The US economy is in very good shape and is likely to grow by around 3% this year.

• I think these fears are overblown … the US economy is in very good shape and will probably grow by about 3% this year.

  – Charles Myers

• Current estimates of the decline in the US economy due to effective protection are overstated.

• I think there are still some overestimates of the U.S. overvaluation, and the watchdogs are and will be.

  – Charles Myers

• The bond market serves as an important proxy for the US economy and influences government actions.
• It is important to understand the current economic climate and projections for the growth of the US economy.
• The effectiveness of the bond market as a safe haven reflects the stability of the US economy.
• The role of the bond market in economic governance and stability is a key factor in evaluating the US economy.

The impact of geopolitical tensions on market analysis

• Geopolitical risk is inherently unpredictable due to the unique motivations and objectives of different actors.
• The unpredictable nature of geopolitical events creates challenges for investment strategies.
• Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are of major importance for market analysis.
• Possible military actions against Iran are closely related to the success or failure of diplomatic efforts.
• Understanding the complexity of geopolitical risk is critical to assessing market dynamics.
• The lack of patterns in geopolitical risk requires a flexible approach to investment strategies.
• Geopolitical risk can affect market volatility and investor sentiment.
• The unpredictable nature of geopolitical events underscores the need for accurate market analysis.