Bitcoin price nears $68,000 as short-term holders avoid US-Iran war tensions
Conclusion
- Bitcoin price is trading near its weekly high of $62,900 to $69,300.
- Despite the geopolitical upswing, short-term exchange inflows remain subdued.
- A daily closing of more than $70,000 can change short-term momentum.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $68,308 at press time, up 1.3% over the past 24 hours. The asset settled near its seven-day high of $62,905 to $69,340, recovering from a sharp decline earlier in the week.
But the bigger trend is still corrective. After reaching an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 45% from that peak. So far in 2026, it’s down nearly 20%, reflecting continued pressure after last year’s rally.
Derivative activity has increased over the past day. CoinGlass data shows that trading volume increased by 8.7% to $72.3 billion, while open interest increased by 1.6% to $44.9 billion. When open interests rise along with the price, it often indicates that new positions are being opened, not closed.
Short-term holders are in no rush to sell
A March 1 analysis from a CryptoQuant contributor examined the short-term measure of Bitcoin Holder P&L to Exchanges. This indicator tracks whether recent buyers are sending coins to exchanges at a profit or loss. Short-term holders tend to react quickly to fear-based events and can increase volatility.
According to the report, on February 5-6, during a sharp market decline, around 89,000 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss in 24 hours. This episode showed a clear capitulation of newer market participants. Since then, these imports have steadily declined at a loss.
Recent geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran have provided another stress test. Bitcoin briefly fell to the $63,000-$64,000 range, but the exchange’s inflows from short holders did not increase.
There was no increase in panic selling or aggressive profit-taking from this typically reactive group.
This change is significant. Markets often stabilize after forced sellers exit. Current data suggest that most of the recent liquidation pressure may have already been fulfilled.
Selling has slowed from recent buyers and weak hands appear to be less active. Whether or not this lull continues will matter in the future.
Seller fatigue will be evident if exchange inflows from short-term holders remain low. A sharp increase in practical losses indicates a resurgence of stress.
Bitcoin price technical analysis
Since January, Bitcoin has continued to move within a downward structure marked by highs and lows. The recent pullback comes after a sharp decline, and the price is currently consolidating rather than showing a strong trend in either direction.
The Bollinger Bands show that Bitcoin reached a low of around $64,400 before moving higher. At $67,300, it is currently trading near the middle band. The upper band, near $70,100, represents immediate resistance.
A rejection in the $70,000-$71,000 area will keep the pressure on the upside, while a strong daily close in this area could change the short-term momentum.
The relative strength index rose from oversold levels in the 20s to around 47. Momentum is improving, although it has not crossed 50, a level often associated with strong buyer control.
The current structure resembles a sharp downward momentum followed by a sideways squeeze that could turn into a bearish flag. If this pattern resolves downward, a return to $60,000 would be acceptable.
Support ranges from $64,000 to $65,000. If this area fails, the next psychological level near $60,000 may come into focus.
