W.When North Korea’s ruling party held a high-level meeting this month there were predictable boasts of unstoppable nuclear development and, more unexpectedly, a suggestion from Kim Jong-un that his country and the United States “could get along,” as long as Washington recognized North Korea as a legitimate nuclear power.
But for many North Korea watchers, the Workers’ Party congress (held over several days only once every five years) was a rare opportunity to speculate about the identity of the country’s future leader.
It is widely believed that Kim has already decided that his daughter, Kim Ju-ae, will succeed him to become the fourth-generation leader of the dynasty that has ruled the country with an iron fist since its founding in 1948.
But in recent weeks dissenting voices have emerged among experts who say North Korea’s immutable gender policy could still block Kim Ju-ae’s path to power.
“The most immediate and insurmountable roadblock for Kim Ju-ae is the deeply entrenched patriarchal nature of North Korea,” Mitch Shin, who covers the Korean Peninsula for the Diplomat, wrote this month, adding that North Korea functioned “more like a Neo-Confucian monarchy” than a socialist state.
There is little indication that the ranks of the country’s elderly generals would accept a woman as “supreme leader,” Shin said. “For these men, many of them in their 60s and 70s, the concept of swearing absolute, life-or-death loyalty to a young woman is more than a cultural shift. It is a structural anomaly that threatens the internal logic of the regime.”
Instead, Kim could be using his daughter as a “human shield” for the royal successor, Kim Jong-un’s long-rumored eldest son. “In this way, your son can be protected from the prying eyes of international intelligence.”
Other experts, however, maintain that the patriarchy that permeates North Korean society will always be replaced by the non-negotiable principle that a successor must be a direct descendant of the lineage of Mount Paektu, a reference to the sacred North Korean peak used to confer legitimacy on the Kim dynasty.
NK News correspondent Shreyas Reddy also cast doubt on the notion that Kim Ju-ae’s future role as leader was a fait accompli, describing her prominence as more performative than political. “State media’s depiction of Kim’s affection for his daughter aligns with a growing push to portray him as a loving ‘father’ figure to the entire nation,” Reddy wrote.
“For now, the best path appears to be to wait and see, rather than declaring North Korea’s next leader before the regime is ready to do so.”
In the absence of official statements confirming Kim Ju-ae’s status as a future leader, a consensus has formed about her future based on her public profile and her proximity to her father, and even her wardrobe.
Despite her increased visibility, North Korean state media has never published her name, referring to her only as the leader’s “respected” or “most beloved” daughter. There are also disagreements over how to pronounce his given name.
Much of the impetus behind Kiim Ju-ae’s supposed rise comes from South Korea’s national intelligence service, which this month claimed that Kim Jong-un was close to naming her the country’s future leader.
Even if that were to one day be the case, for now Kim Ju-ae’s primary role is that of daughter, according to Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. “He is probably not old enough yet to participate in the congress with an official party title,” he said.
There is nothing in the mood music coming from the North to suggest that Kim Jong-un will one day surprise the world similar to his own rapid rise as a leader, said Lee Sung-Yoon, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute in Seoul.
Kim Jong-un “has already established beyond a reasonable doubt that he is grooming his teenage daughter as his successor,” Lee said, noting Kim Ju-ae’s presence alongside her father at dozens of official events.
Her decision to place her daughter front-row center at her New Year’s visit to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun – a sacred mausoleum of the Kim dynasty – should “remove any doubt” that she was being positioned as the heir to her 42-year-old father, Lee said.
In 2023, South Korean intelligence officials told lawmakers that Kim and his wife will also likely have an older son and a younger third child, whose sex is unknown.
“Kim Jong-un has not told any foreign interlocutors that he has a child,” Lee said, adding that the claim had been based on “flimsy intelligence reports” about children’s toys and diapers that were delivered to the Kim family mansion in Pyongyang several years ago.
Since his first public appearance, at a long-range missile test in November 2022, Kim Ju-ae has accompanied his father at an increasing number of events, including weapons tests, military parades, factory openings and, last year, on a family visit to a coastal resort. He also traveled with his father to Beijing last September for his summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
His prominence sparked speculation that Kim Jong-un was preparing to add political weight to his symbolic role. The recent congress ended without a trace of the teenager, but she accompanied her father in a military parade in Pyongyang to mark the end of the meeting.
Wearing matching leather coats, father and daughter chatted constantly, pointing out parade formations and singing along with the performers. Kim Ju-ae watched as her father and senior military officers saluted fighter jets flying over an illuminated Kim Il-sung Square.
Analyst Lim Eul-chul said the jackets were more than a fashion statement.
“In the political symbolism of North Korea, this view has weight: it is linked to the image of the leader as the ultimate guarantor of national security and future prosperity.
“So when your young daughter wears that same symbolic outfit, it’s hard to see it as accidental.”
With Agence France-Presse
