Coinbase Global (COIN) is where retail investors buy Bitcoin (BTCUSD) at midnight and track Ethereum (ETHUSD) before dawn. Founded as a pure-play crypto exchange, the New York-based platform has built its reputation on making digital assets accessible to everyday investors. Now, it’s expanding the playbook.
Beyond crypto, Coinbase has launched commission-free stock and ETF trading for all US users – 24 hours a day, five days a week. More than 8,000 US-listed equities and ETFs are now available in the same app where users trade Bitcoin, complete with $1 fractional shares, instant funding via dollars or USDC, and seamless integration with Yahoo Finance for one-click execution.
The move puts Coinbase squarely in competition with some of the more prominent players in this space, which are aggressively targeting retail merchants’ cash. But it’s not just about the same features. CEO Brian Armstrong created it as part of his “everything exchange” vision; Bridging traditional finance and digital asset economics under one unified portfolio.
And Coinbase isn’t stopping there, with plans to expand its stock offerings, introduce tokenized equity, and expand perpetual access to stocks for international traders looking for 24/7 exposure to US markets.
With COIN stock having lost more than half its value since its July high, is this development the catalyst investors have been waiting for, or just another smart bet in a rising space? Should Investors Pick Up COIN Now?
Founded in 2012, Coinbase is a Delaware-based crypto giant, boasting a market cap of $47.8 billion. As a major global exchange, it serves both retail and institutional investors. Beyond business, it is expanding through international licenses, acquisitions, and innovations such as steelcoin payments, crypto cards, and subscriptions, positioning itself as a key architect in the evolution of digital finance.
Coinbase shares have largely been synchronized with the broader crypto cycle. As Bitcoin rallied and regulatory sentiment improved, COIN grew on that optimism, reaching a July high of $444.64. But as soon as the momentum was built, it disappeared. A broad rebound in digital assets has seen shares fall nearly 59% from their highs. Over the past six months, the stock has fallen about 43.09%, and it has fallen about 16.59% in the past one month alone.
Still, recent price action points to stability. Over the past five trading sessions, COIN has risen 2.63%, helped by improving crypto sentiment and the official role of US stock and ETF trading as part of its “everything exchange” push. A partnership with Yahoo Finance and a positive change in the Coinbase Premium Index boosted confidence.
From a technical point of view, trading volume has started to pick up, which is often an early sign that investor interest is returning. The 14-day RSI, which fell into oversold territory in February, is now around 46.31, suggesting selling pressure is cooling rather than intensifying.
The momentum indicators are also turning positive. The MACD line recently crossed above the signal line after spending several weeks below it, a change that typically signals bullish momentum. In addition, the histogram has moved into positive territory, indicating that the upward movement is gradually building. While it’s not yet a full breakout, the setup suggests that the stock may be trying to establish a near-term base of stability.
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Coinbase presented its fourth quarter 2025 results on February 12, against a mixed backdrop for crypto markets and mixed investor sentiment. The numbers told a story of resilience, but also stress. Total revenue came in at $1.78 billion, down 22% year-over-year (YOY) and roughly in line with expectations. Non-GAAP EPS fell to $0.66, sharply lower than $3.37 a year ago, as softer business performance weighed on fees.
Net income fell 22.2% to $1.71 billion. Transaction revenue fell 37% to $982.7 million amid lower volumes, but subscription and services revenue rose 13.5% to $727.4 million, supported by strong stable revenue and recurring services. Adjusted EBITDA remained positive, although well below last year’s level.
For the full year, the total trading volume rose to $5.23 trillion, marking a sharp jump of 156% over the previous year, indicating how active the platform was during the crypto recovery phases. However, the company did not specifically disclose overall business volume figures for Q4. On the consumer side, Q4 spot trade volume reached $56 billion, down 6% sequentially as retail activity cooled. The underlying space business was strong in absolute terms at $215 billion for Q4, although it also declined 13% sequentially, reflecting soft participation from major players.
Importantly, Coinbase’s balance sheet remained strong. Cash was $11.28 billion, and free cash flow was supported by operations. Coinbase One customers hit nearly 1 million records. The company also added $39 million in Bitcoin to its investment portfolio through continuous weekly purchases.
Return on investment was another headline. In Q4, Coinbase bought about 3.3 million shares for $850 million, and repurchased 4.9 million shares for $895 million as of February 10, 2026. In total, the $1.7 billion purchases exceed the 2025 stock-based compensation reduction. In January, the board approved an additional $2 billion in repurchase authorizations, making $2.3 billion available as of February 10.
Looking ahead to Q1 2026, management expects subscription and services revenue between $550 million and $630 million. Transaction costs should be placed in the low to mid-teens as a percentage of net income. Operating expenses remain high, with R&D and G&A estimated at $925 million to $975 million, sales and marketing at $215 million to $315 million, and stock-based compensation at around $250 million.
Despite the volatility, management cited market growth, strong product engagement, growing base network, and ongoing international and regulatory opportunities.
Analysts tracking Coinbase expect the company’s bottom line to decline 70.6% YOY to $0.57 a share in Q1, on revenue estimates of around $1.59 billion. Adjusted EPS for fiscal 2026 is estimated to be around $3.32, down 17.6% YoY. However, in fiscal 2027, EPS on an adjusted basis is expected to rise 31.6% annually to $4.37.
Wall Street hasn’t exactly flipped the flag on Coinbase, but it has become more cautious. This month, several brokerage firms lowered their price targets on COIN, reflecting a more measured outlook. Bank of America, for example, recently cut its target from $340 to $288, though it maintained a “buy” rating. The company adjusts earnings estimates at brokers and exchanges after the latest quarter’s results.
Meanwhile, Mizuho analyst Dan Dulliff sharply cut his price target from $280 to $170 and maintained a “neutral” stance, citing weak Bitcoin prices and ongoing pressure from the crypto’s decline. In fact, Mizuho believes that Robinhood (HOOD) is currently better positioned than Coinbase in this environment.
Wall Street is bullish on COIN, with the stock overall having a consensus rating of “Fair Buy.” Out of 34 analysts, 19 now rate it a “strong buy”, one calls it a “moderate buy”. 10 analysts are playing it safe with “Hold” and the remaining four are clearly bearish with “Strong Sell” ratings.
An average price target of $250.49 implies a potential upside of 42.4%. Meanwhile, the highest Street estimate of $440 suggests COIN stock could rise as much as 150% from here.
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As of the date of publication, Sristi Suman Jayaswal had no position (either directly or indirectly) in any of the warranties mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
