In mid-January, I wrote about Miami, Ohio and argued that it shouldn’t be ranked yet. Since then, the Redhawks have won 10 more games and are now 29-0.
I don’t think I’m quite wrong in saying that Miami shouldn’t be ranked. But overall my stance on Miami is taking a backseat. The analytics resume still isn’t a good fit for Miami. It ranks 86th in KenPom, 285th in constant strength, and 51st in NET rating.
But I don’t think these metrics tell the whole story for Miami. They are 29-0 and ranked 21st in record strength, which refers to how impressive a team’s record is based on wins and losses. Fifteen other teams have started 25-0, including Miami, and all of the previous teams were one-seeds in the tournament.
I’m not advocating that Miami should line up, but I think it’s ridiculous to say one loss and they’re out of the tournament. My biggest problem is that the rest of the team is in the bubble. Joe Lunardi is probably the best known bracket specialist. But he works at ESPN and they have a huge bias against the SEC.
He currently has 11 SEC teams in the tournament, which makes no sense. Last season, the SEC was the best conference in sports. I don’t think they’ve done anything this season to deserve the same level of respect from the committee.
The most serious additions come from Auburn. They are 15-14! That record alone should exclude him from tournament consideration. Not only that, they finished February 1-6. This includes losses to two Mississippi schools with a combined conference record of 9-23 and a combined overall record of 25-33. We know this team is not serious and if these types of teams are the reason Miami is left out of the dance, the entire tournament is a joke.
You don’t need more than 10 teams in a conference. We’ve already seen two teams play each other, and I’d rather see more mid-majors in the tournament get a chance to play well on their schedules.
Finally, the NET rating system is broken. You don’t punish a team for losing to a good opponent. If anything, you get rewarded when you lose to a good team. Because Miami’s SOS has stayed low, when it beats other MAC schools, it has a much more negative impact on its NET rankings than a top-five program losing to the worst team in the conference. This is a continuous cycle of MACs colliding with each other and is always considered a bad loss.
Kent State, Toledo and Akron are very solid programs atop the MAC this year, and beating them would be more advantageous than Auburn’s four-point home win over South Carolina. If Miami fails before the end of the season, let’s hope the committee is smart enough to keep them dancing.
