Important long-term technical signals are still flashing as Bitcoin approaches a critical point on the higher time charts. According to CMT-certified analyst Tony Severino, the monthly SuperTrend indicator for BTCUSD has had support and is still not showing an active sell signal, even with recent market dynamics lead to it debate over whether the period has turned bearish. His chart marked an interesting development during the month where structure has not yet passed approved sale.
Monthly SuperTrend is still in buy mode
In his post about X, Severino turned his attention to it Bitcoin BTCUSD 1M chart and noted that the SuperTrend indicator has maintained support and maintains its active buy signal. The monthly timeframe is particularly important because it filters out the short-term noise and provides a clear view of the broader timeframe.
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The accompanying chart shows Bitcoin trading around $66,300, with the SuperTrend level sitting just above $66,400. However, the indicator is still printing green on the monthly chart, which means that the macro trend is not bearish. A monthly close below the SuperTrend line is what always confirms a sell signal, and this has not happened.
The visual structure on the chart also shows how previous bear markets were characterized by a clear transition from green to red in the SuperTrend. Currently, this transition has not occurred. Instead, Bitcoin price is consolidating around SuperTrend support.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @TonySeverinoCMT On X
Is the bottom near or more patience needed?
Severino added an important caveat. According to him, almost all bear markets initially hold support for a month or three and eventually turn into a sell signal. This observation suggests that simply maintaining support does not automatically cancel downside risk. Although the analyst acknowledged that bear markets can stand at support before failure, he noted that after such behavior the bottom is usually close.
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Bitcoin ended February 14.8% at the bottom of his monthly openingbut it managed to hold on to the SuperTrend. That said, the confirmed monthly distribution below the SuperTrend changes the outlook significantly. As long as this happens, the indicator will show that it is Bitcoin still in strong structure.
Severino later shared another message A separate analysis is discussed according to the quarterly indicator. In this analysis, he stated that historical evidence and data show that Bitcoin could fall another 38% to 66% from the current level. A drop in this amount would mean the end of Bitcoin’s bear market anywhere between $40,000 and $25,000.
Severino followed another post with a comment that says, “Sell, says SuperTrend.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin sold for $66,000, decreased by 1.6% in the last 24 hours. The monthly structure is not completely broken, but the warnings indicate that the cryptocurrency may not be out of danger now.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
