Why Iran should not count Russia and China

As the US and Israeli strikes enter their third day, Iran’s closest allies — Russia and China — have so far responded with only muted criticism that reveals the harsh limits of its “strategic partnership” with Moscow and Beijing.

Russian and Chinese officials have condemned the US-led strikes but stopped short of pledging military or civilian support for Tehran.

In a phone call with his Russian counterpart on Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the attack that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. “It is unacceptable for the US and Israel to attack Iran … brazenly assassinating the leader of a sovereign nation and instigating regime change,” he said.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry, embroiled in the invasion of Ukraine, said in a statement that the “acts of aggression” violated the fundamental principles of international law and the UN Charter and were “destabilizing the situation throughout the region.”

The pair reiterated their leaders’ call for an immediate ceasefire and a return to diplomatic talks to resolve the conflicts. Trump warned on Sunday that the US military operation in Iran will continue until all objectives are achieved, which could extend to the next four weeks.

Gabriel Wildau, managing director specializing in China at consultancy Teneo, said China’s official statement was “strongly condemnable, but beyond this rhetoric I don’t see the Chinese government taking concrete action to support Tehran”.

“Preserving détente with the US remains a strategic priority for China’s leadership,” Wildau said, adding that he expected a high-level meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to go ahead later this month as planned.

Trump and Xi discussed issues including Iran in their last phone call on February 4. They are expected to meet during Trump’s visit to China.

“Beijing could get concessions in return for a significantly watered-down message on Iran on issues directly related to its interests, such as Taiwan and trade,” said Ahmed Aboudouh, a fellow at Chatham House, a London-based policy think tank.

Neutankin, a social media account with links to Chinese state media widely seen as Beijing’s mouthpiece, wrote on Monday that “Iran has no real ally,” adding that countries close to Tehran still prioritize their own national interests over bailing out of the crisis.

China’s stance of restraint in providing military support to Iran is not new.

Last year, Beijing criticized US and Israeli attacks on Iran but did not provide material support to Tehran, according to British think tank Chatham House.

China supported UN-led economic sanctions against Tehran before the 2015 nuclear deal and has moved slowly in channeling investment into the Iranian economy, according to a London-based policy firm.

After the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3, Beijing condemned the “unconscionable use of force” and urged Washington to “stop violating the sovereignty of other countries”. But it did little beyond offering these words of condemnation.

China’s responses to U.S. intervention in Venezuela and Iran have been “less a strategic partnership with Beijing than a military alliance — or even a guarantee of military support” facing an “existential threat from U.S. aggression,” Wildau said.

In recent years Tehran has been an important strategic, military, economic and trade partner for Moscow in the Middle East. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, Iran has become a major supplier of military drones and missiles to Russia.

Russia fears another foothold in the Middle East as Iran’s regime collapses, following the loss of another regional ally, Syria, following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024.

Despite the Russian Foreign Ministry’s condemnation of the attack on Iran, neither the Kremlin nor President Vladimir Putin have spoken publicly about the situation. CNBC has requested comment from the Kremlin.

Matt Gerken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told CNBC that years of grinding war in Ukraine have eroded Russia’s ability to project power across its borders. With its military overstretched and its economy under constant pressure from Western sanctions, Moscow’s influence in the Middle East will further diminish, he said.

Russia will keep a keen eye on oil prices as it sells its crude oil to China and India to help fund its war machine. Oil prices rose more than 8% on Sunday evening as market participants feared the conflict in Iran could cause global supply disruptions.

Several countries in the OPEC+ group, including Russia, announced on Sunday that they would increase output by 206,000 barrels a day from April as they look to combat a potential shortfall. Higher oil prices help Russia.

“Putin should be thrilled, because anything that raises the price of oil is good for him,” Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, told CNBC on Monday. “They’re certainly able to say: If you can’t get oil from the Gulf, hey, we’ve got a good supply.”

Talks between Ukraine and Russia aimed at ending the four-year war have seen little progress in recent weeks.

“He (Putin) is certainly happy about the situation, I would say, once that is resolved, Trump is certainly going to turn his eyes to Putin,” Wald added.

Russia generally takes a “wait and see” approach to global affairs that do not directly affect its interests. When protests broke out in Iran in late December, Russia did not lend a helping hand. Now, Russia can stand back and see if the regime can withstand a military attack by the US and Israel.

Michael McFaul, a Stanford professor and former US ambassador to Russia, said there was no guarantee that US and Israeli airstrikes would be enough to bring about regime change.

“Historically, air strikes don’t lead to the overthrow of a regime. I can’t think of a single case of success where military interventions with boots on the ground (fail),” he told CNBC.

“We’re bombing military targets right now that are weapons systems aimed at us and our partners and allies, we’re not taking out military equipment and weapons used to suppress the Iranian people.”

“So far, it is unclear how this military operation will lead to the regime change that President Trump promised the Iranian people,” he said.