Iran and the Middle East are on fire again. US and Israeli forces carried out a series of airstrikes on Iran over the weekend that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – a development that sent shockwaves through global markets and sparked fresh debate about what the future holds for the US economy. And in the midst of all the chaos, one prominent voice in the crypto world is already drawing a straight line from the bombing to Bitcoin prices.
Arthur Hayes makes his case
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, published a blog post this week arguing that US military operations in the Middle East have a historical pattern – and that pattern is good for crypto.
His thinking goes back decades. According to Hayes, every current US president since 1985 has sent troops to the Middle East. Every now and then, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or injects more money into the financial system to help cover costs.
A quote by Arthur Hayes on his blog post.
The Persian Gulf War in 1990. The aftermath of the September 11 attacks in 2001. The troop surge in Afghanistan in 2009. Each episode, according to Hayes, was triggered by a small amount of money.
His conclusion: If US President Donald Trump continues to spend heavily on what Hayes calls “Iranian nation-building,” the Fed may eventually feel pressure to ease its tight monetary stance. This, in turn, can send money to riskier assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Iran-US war: Markets are calm now
So far, the markets are not panicking. Stock futures were only slightly lower at the open on Monday. Oil prices rose initially, then retreated, erasing about half of the early gains. The S&P 500 shed less than 1%. Financial newsletter The Kobeissi Letter was clear about this – this was not a doomsday opening.
To all those calling for World War 3:
This open futures is not anywhere near WW3.
In fact, oil prices have already erased nearly half of their open gap, and the S&P 500 is down less than 1%.
Gold is up just 2% and Bitcoin is now positive on the day.
No…
— Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 1, 2026
Crypto social media told a different story in tone, if not substance. According to analytics firm Santiment, reports say that mentions of “World War 3” increased across platforms over the weekend.
But the numbers were still well below the levels recorded last June, when a previous round of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military sites led to nearly two weeks of direct conflict between the two countries.
An example worth watching
Hayes himself now urges caution. He admits there is no way to know how committed Trump will be to a costly military campaign in Iran, or how much pain the market can stomach before the administration withdraws.
His advice to crypto investors is to wait – especially for a specific Fed tapering or money printing signal – before making big moves.
“The time to back up the truck and buy bitcoin,” he wrote, is right after the Fed’s actions, not before.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Editing process because bitcoinist is committed to delivering thoroughly researched, accurate and unbiased content. We adhere to strict sourcing standards and every page is rigorously reviewed by a team of top technology experts and experienced editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance and value of our content to our readers.
