Iran’s vows to punish the US and Israel for starting the war by killing its supreme leader have yet to translate into decisive military action despite the first American casualties.
Iranian forces have launched hundreds of drones and missiles across the Middle East in multiple waves, but without causing significant damage against American assets in the region, such as sinking a warship or destroying a base.
In contrast, American and Israeli strikes have already devastated regime targets. Iran. They have The head of the regime, Ali Khamenei, was oustedAlso the army chief, General Abdul Rahim Mousavi and Defense Minister General Aziz Nasirzadeh.
Iran Latest: Three US Service Members Killed
Smoke rises from a warehouse in the UAE city of Sharjah, but most of the drones and missiles have been shot down. Image: AP
Then again, it’s only two days into the war and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vowed “harsh, decisive and regret-inducing punishment”.
The longer this rhetoric becomes reality, the more questions will mount as to whether Iran’s much-feared military forces still have the ability to detect, target and strike US and Israeli warships and jets.
General Sir Richard Barons, a former senior UK military officer, said several factors could limit Iran’s maneuvering options, not least the loss of many top leaders.
Any move to launch the missiles would expose the launch site to American and Israeli attacks from the air, meaning Iran’s missile launchers would have a “fairly short” lifespan.
In addition, previous attacks by both the US and Israel against Iran in the past two years have already curtailed the regime’s ability to detect incoming enemy aircraft with its missile stockpiles, launchers and air defenses.
All of this may explain why few US and Israeli military targets have suffered much meaningful damage so far, even though Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones.
Although the full extent of any damage is unclear.
UK Defense Secretary John Healy has warned that a wounded Iran still has the capacity to inflict damage – in an even more erratic way, not least the impact on millions of civilians living across the Gulf.
“This administration is lashing out. It’s lashing out in a more indiscriminate and widespread way,” he said. Speaking to Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.
“And people are really concerned that it’s not just military targets, but civilian airports like Kuwait, hotels in Dubai and Bahrain that are being hit.”
Tourist hotspots in the crossfire
Countries affected so far include Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq, where there are several American bases.
Many munitions appear to be intercepted, but falling debris can be deadly.
With so much metal flying around, civilian and tourist sites are caught in the crossfire. Dubai is one of the busiest airports in the worldAll flights are stopped there and entry to luxury hotel.
It would have been terrifying for those affected but these strikes seem to have done nothing to diminish the ability of the US and Israel to strike Iran.
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The highest value target for the administration would surely be the two American aircraft carrier strike groups led by the USS Gerald R Ford – thought to be south of Cyprus – and the USS Abraham Lincoln.
An attempt to hit these warships may explain why the UK says two Iranian missiles were fired in the direction of the Mediterranean island. Britain has bases on Cyprus but they are not thought to be the focus of the attack.
General Barrons said Iran could seek alternative routes on the battlefield by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit hub for global oil and gas exports.
A disruption to this shipping lane would affect economies around the world – and it is already starting to target tankers, including off the coast of Oman.
President Trump Iran is gambling that it does not have the ability to counter its overwhelming firepower. And so it may be.
But it would only take one Iranian missile penetrating American air defenses to change that calculus, or for Washington to at least dramatically increase the cost of its war.
