Iran could “strike harder” after Khamenei’s death

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is fueling fears that Washington’s pursuit of regime change in Iran and Tehran’s retaliation could destabilize regions from the Gulf to Europe, leaving world leaders struggling to assess the consequences.

The United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran over the weekend, killing the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting waves of attacks by Tehran across the region.

President Donald Trump made clear in a video message Saturday following the initial wave of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran that his goal was to “eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a ruthless group of very tough and terrible people.”

Geopolitical analysts warned that Saturday’s attacks could be the opening salvo in a sustained military campaign aimed at dismantling the Iranian regime, as the United States seeks to assert its dominance over the world’s most critical oil-producing region.

“The scale of the attacks by the United States and Israel, coupled with the apparent goal of regime change in Iran, suggest that the military conflict could escalate quickly and unpredictably,” said Rexon Ryu, president of The Asia Group, a business consulting firm. “There is a substantial immediate risk of regional and potentially global escalation, as Iran can now use any available options to respond.”

“The previous attacks were aimed at the nuclear weapons program,” said David Silbey, a professor of military history at Cornell University, referring to the 12-day war in June last year, when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes that damaged three key Iranian nuclear sites.

But “this one will be much broader, targeting command and control, headquarters and leadership, and the military and secret police in general,” Silbey said. “Since there does not appear to be a US ground campaign in the offing, the goal is to overthrow the regime internally, either through a popular uprising or a palace coup.”

Silbey warned that Iran could respond with retaliatory attacks, including missile strikes against Israeli and US military bases and vessels in the Persian Gulf, as well as possible terrorist operations in the Middle East, Europe and the United States.

“If the regime feels threatened, it will attack more forcefully than if it thought it could resist attacks,” Silbey said.

The latest conflagration has already spread to other parts of the Gulf region. Iranian missiles targeted Israel and multiple Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan, all countries with air bases containing American assets.

“Years of building an Iranian detente with the Gulf may be over,” said Aysha Chowdhry, director of The Asia Group.

Both Russia and China have offered statements condemning the United States, and that is likely to be the case even as the situation escalates, but analysts say neither is in a position to provide more significant material support.

China, a key economic lifeline for Iran amid tough Western sanctions, bought more than 80% of the oil shipped to Tehran in 2025, accounting for 13.5% of all crude oil imported by sea. Iran has also been a vital supplier of military drones and missiles to aid Moscow’s war efforts in Ukraine.

But years of grinding war in Ukraine have hollowed out Russia’s ability to project power beyond its borders, said Matt Gerken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

With its military overstretched and its economy under sustained pressure from Western sanctions, Moscow’s influence in the Middle East will decline further, Gerken added.

But Beijing has refrained from expressing strong support for Iran as Washington continued to increase its military presence in the Gulf in the run-up to the attack. Instead, it has focused on fostering diplomacy and regional security.

Analysts are watching for possible signs of whether this latest conflict in the Middle East could threaten to derail diplomatic engagement between the United States and China and even President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing later this month.

In a statement late Saturday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson urged the United States and Israel to “immediately stop military actions” in the region and restore dialogues, calling for “respect for Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.”

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed issues including Iran, Taiwan and trade in a phone call on February 4. “Beijing may seek concessions on issues more directly related to its interests, such as Taiwan and trade, in exchange for its significantly softened message on Iran,” said Ahmed Aboudouh, a fellow at Chatham House, a London-based policy think tank.

Paradoxically, a weakened Iran can serve Chinese interests. “The more the Iranian regime is weakened, whether by US or Israeli military attacks or internal unrest, the more diplomatically, economically and technologically dependent on China it will become,” Aboudouh said.

In the long term, China is likely to feel pressure to assert its dominance in the region. “China will need to make a show of power projection in its region to deter US military action and create a sphere of influence,” although for now, oil supply vulnerabilities may limit its options, Aboudouh said.

The military actions appeared to have shattered, at least for now, any remaining prospects for a negotiated deal on Iran’s nuclear program.

The United States and Iran had engaged in three rounds of indirect talks focused on reaching an agreement on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and on Washington lifting economic sanctions on the country.

With Iran’s regime at a time of “critical vulnerability,” Washington and Jerusalem were unable to obtain denuclearization and disarmament guarantees from Tehran and decided they “could not afford to miss the opportunity to reshape the region,” Gerken said.