Japan rejects US intel assessment that Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks represent ‘significant change’

Japan on Thursday rejected a US intelligence assessment that said Prime Minister Sane Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan represented a “significant shift” for the sitting Japanese prime minister.

Tokyo’s approach is “quite consistent,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara told reporters at a press conference.

“A significant policy change is not something that is happening right now,” Kihara said, according to a translation provided by the Prime Minister’s Office.

The response came as Takaichi arrived in the US for a summit with US President Donald Trump, with the Iran conflict expected to dominate the meeting.

Takaichi sparked a furious response from Beijing in November when he told parliament that China’s attempt to seize Taiwan by force would prompt intervention by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.

China responded by suspending seafood imports and issuing travel advisories to its nationals against traveling to Japan, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of Chinese tourists to the country.

An intelligence report issued on March 18 said Takaichi’s characterization of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan — a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan — carried weight.

The term could open the door for Japan to intervene under a 2015 reinterpretation of its constitution, which allows Japan’s military to engage in “collective self-defense” to protect allied forces in certain situations.

The US report said “China is using multidomain coercive pressure, which will probably intensify by 2026, aimed at punishing Japan and preventing other countries from making similar statements about their potential involvement in the Taiwan crisis.”

However, the intelligence community has assessed that Chinese leaders are not currently planning to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027.

Beijing views democratic Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force against the island. Taiwan, for its part, rejects those claims and says it alone can decide its own fate.

Earlier Wednesday, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said peaceful reunification with Taiwan would benefit the island, including improving the security of Taiwan’s energy resources, “backed by a strong motherland.”

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has sought to play down concerns about its energy stockpile, saying supplies to Taiwan are “100% in place” for the next two months. He said Taiwan intends to increase gas imports from the US to meet domestic energy demand.

According to Taiwan’s Energy Administration, 95.8% of its energy will be imported in 2024. Saudi Arabia and the United States account for 30% of crude imports each.

Taiwan gets 38% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Australia, with almost a quarter coming from Qatar.

Imported coal accounts for 29.1% of Taiwan’s energy supply, with about half from Australia and only 0.03% from China. Taiwan did not import any crude oil or LNG from China that year.