Madness is back… or is it? The 2026 NCAA Tournament ends Thursday at a moment — and, some say, crisis — for the sport.
I don’t want to sound pessimistic, but whether the type of tournament that has seduced so many fans like myself for decades still exists now suddenly seems like an open question. My hope is that the next few weeks will still offer a glimmer of hope.
Did Goliath kill David?
Jaw-dropping upsets are what make the NCAA Tournament what it is. They thought it magical and contributed mightily to its enduring appeal. And just a few years ago, those Cinderella stories were written with more regularity than ever, as No. 15 seeds reached the Elite 8 in 2021 (Oral Roberts) and 2022 (St. Peter’s) and the Sweet 16 in 2023 (Princeton). That 2023 tournament is no. No. 16 seed (Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue) and No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic from a trip to the Final Four. 1 included the second removal of the rank.
But just like that, the march of the lower classes has stopped. In each of the last two tournaments, only one double-digit seed has made it past the first weekend — and both have come from power conferences. Last year’s Elite 8 and Final Four were chalk-fests. It’s hard to conclude that the dramatic changes in the sport that have come through the NIL and the transfer portal have benefited the Bluebloods, but have they fundamentally changed the tournament? That possibility hangs on this year’s version. If the top seeds and power conferences crush the mid-majors again, the pattern will be more pronounced. We’re going to find out if there’s still any magic left in March.
More from the NCAA Tournament
If there is any magic…
I have to believe it can still happen, so I have my eye on three potential first-round upsets. And I mean real upsets — not undercutting power conference teams with double-digit seeds.
No. 5 Texas Tech over No. 12 Akron
Conference rival Miami (Ohio) gets all the attention, but the Zips may actually be the best team in the MAC. They narrowly lost to Miami in January and have won 19 of 20 games since then with their only loss coming to a very good Troy team (more on the Trojans in a minute). Texas Tech, meanwhile, lost star JT Toppin a month ago and seems to be feeling the effects, dropping three straight heading into this game.
No. 4 Nebraska over No. 13 Troy
The Trojans went west earlier this season and beat San Diego State, one of the first four teams eliminated from the tournament by the selection committee. Two nights later, they took USC to triple-overtime on the road before falling by one point.
Troy is capable of playing with a power conference opponent, especially one like Nebraska, which has fallen to just 6-6 down the stretch after a 20-0 start to the season. The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game, but they have suffered several first-round upsets. This could be one more of them.
No. 5 Kansas over No. 13 California Baptist
The Lancers employ a unique defense and boast one of the top scorers in the country in Dominique Daniels. But this choice is more rooted in my doubts about Kansas. He’s talented and capable, sure, with wins in both Arizona and Houston. But with blowout losses to Cincinnati and Arizona State, they could be confused, and no one knows what version of themselves their star, Darrin Peterson, will show. After winning the national title in 2022, the Jayhawks have yet to make it out of the first weekend. There are enough question marks here to make you dream of a classic March Madness upset.
Another kind of Cinderella
Last year’s “Cinderella” no. 10 seed, Arkansas. Two years ago, it was no. 11 seed, was NC State. If a new era is dawning, this may be the type of March magic we need to settle for now — teams that finish at the bottom of power conferences get on a roll when it really counts. Who could be this year’s edition? It could be Texas A&M, the 10th seed in the South.
The Aggies play “bucky ball,” a relentless, fast-paced style that can wear down opponents. It’s a trademark of his first-year coach Bucky McMillan, who led Samford to an upset of Kansas in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
I am most looking forward to the potential matchup
In the Sweet 16, the no. 1 Arizona vs. no. 4 Arkansas
Duke, the tournament’s top overall seed, will have to contend with a region stacked in the East, meaning the slight favorite to cut the nets in most betting markets is actually Arizona. He certainly deserves that distinction. The Wildcats are 32-2 overall and enter the tournament on a nine-game winning streak that includes four wins against top-10 teams. They are the best team from the best conference and feature an unusually balanced attack; All five starters average double figures. But what a test they could get in the Sweet 16 from Arkansas and its star guard Darius Acuff Jr., who is perhaps the most explosive and exciting star in the tournament. He averaged 22 points a game but scored more than that in all four SEC tournament games, leading the Razorbacks to their first conference crown in 26 years. The winner of this game – if it comes to pass – could be rolling all the way to the title.
NCAA Tournament winners (or kiss of death) …
Here are my National Championship picks for the last five tournaments:
2021: Illinois lost in the round of 32
2022: Villanova lost in the Final Four
2023: Duke lost in the round of 32
2024: Auburn lost in the round of 64
2025: St. John’s lost in the round of 32
That’s just plain cruel, I wonder if by picking a team I’m asking some kind of psychic power to stop them. Given this unique possibility, I can’t in good conscience pick a team that I want to win it all and, deep down, make a real run (I won’t say the name, but it rhymes with “St. Bon’s”). So instead, I’ll go with the depth and balance of long-term Arizona. Sorry to do this to you, Wildcat fans.
