With the Strait of Hormuz blocked following attacks by the United States and Israel, Iran threatens another major maritime trade choke point: the Red Sea.
The Islamic Republic said this week that the 1,400-mile incursion that bisects Africa and Asia is fair game for a retaliatory attack because of the presence of the American aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford.
“Therefore,” its military said Monday that any facilities supporting the carrier group “are considered potential targets by Iran’s armed forces,” according to the semi-official Fars news agency.
It remains unclear whether Iranian forces attack Red Sea shipping, but in recent years the Houthis, Tehran’s proxy militia based in Yemen, have reduced traffic through the waterway by attacking ships there.
The militant group’s leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, said on March 5 that “our fingers are on the trigger, ready to react at any moment if developments warrant it.”
However, so far, unlike other members of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” — Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militias in Iraq — the Houthis have yet to enter the fray, nearly three weeks after the US and Israel launched an attack on the Islamic Republic.
“It’s too early to call whether or not they will eventually join Iran’s retaliation,” said Burku Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute.
Because it’s not as simple as Iran “inciting or commanding the Houthis to rally to its side,” he said. “The Houthis are still weighing their options and so far they have shown restraint.”
The threat alone increased the Red Sea trade.
Global shipping and oil markets are already in turmoil after Iran responded to the American-Israeli attack by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency.
In an effort to limit the damage, Saudi Arabia has increased capacity on its East-West Pipeline, which connects to the Red Sea on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, while the United Arab Emirates has expanded its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline to the Gulf of Oman.
“Yet at full capacity these routes can typically cover only a quarter of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz,” David Butters, an associate fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, wrote in an analysis this week.
“And they are vulnerable to attacks from Iran and Yemen’s Houthis,” he wrote. “The Yemeni group has not entered the fray yet, but if it does, it could disrupt Saudi exports.”
Historically, the Red Sea has been so valuable that one-tenth of global ocean oil traffic passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow strait of just 16 miles that separates the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa.
That changed in late 2023, however, when the Houthis began attacking ships using that route in response to Israel’s attack on the Gaza Strip.
According to the United Nations Trade and Development’s annual review, Red Sea shipping numbers are set to plummet with traffic crossing the Suez Canal (which connects to the Mediterranean Sea) by mid-2024. Meanwhile, oil flows through Bab el-Mandeb have been cut in half, the US Energy Information Administration said in an analysis.
The ships were forced to take an arduous and highly dangerous trip around Cape Agulhas, the southern tip of Africa. Arrivals at the region’s main port, the Cape of Good Hope, increased by 89% that year, UNCTAD said at the time. This has only contributed to the rise in commodity prices felt by consumers worldwide.
Last year, President Donald Trump launched weeks of intensive bombing against the Houthis costing $1 billion before declaring a ceasefire — only for the group to sink two more ships later that year.
Oil tankers and cargo ships are “gradually returning” to the Red Sea in December, according to maritime intelligence company Lloyd’s List.
Then came the war with Iran.
While the Houthis have not revived their missile operations, their threat to do so has coincided with a “sharp reduction” in Bab el-Mandeb traffic, according to an update from Windward, another maritime intelligence company, published Monday.
“The Red Sea corridor is a place where African, Gulf, Middle Eastern, Asian and global powers converge,” Ahmed Soliman, a senior research fellow at Chatham House specializing in the Horn of Africa, told NBC News in an email. So “a surge in this arena would be hugely destabilizing for shipping.”
The Houthis have not yet hinted at “the speed and sequence of Iran’s retaliatory response,” according to Ozcelik at RUSI. Tehran “may judge it better to reserve the Houthi card for later.”
The break also speaks to “internal factionalism” within the movement, Osselic added, with hard-liners “spoilt for the fight” while others argue that “tightening control over Yemeni territory should take priority”.
Ultimately, the Houthis will “look to outgrow the current war,” he said.
