The steady ascent of France’s far-right cleared another milestone on Sunday, as Marine Le Pen’s national rally posted its best-ever results in the first round of municipal elections seen as a test of its presidential ambitions.
Incumbent Louis Aliot was comfortably re-elected in Perpignan, the only city with a population over 100,000. The National Rally candidates led the first round in Toulon and were neck and neck to the left in Marseille and Nîmes.
More than 904,000 candidates are running for elected positions in nearly 35,000 municipalities across the country, from major cities to villages with a few dozen residents.
The race for the vote was largely overshadowed by the Iran war and its fallout, mainly due to the impact on energy prices. Voter turnout in 2020 was less than 59% for the Covid-affected mayoral election, but lower than the 63.5% registered in 2014.
Read moreFrench mayoral elections seen as a key test of the 2027 presidential race saw low turnout
Although mayoral elections are often fought over local issues, they gauge public mood, measure the strength of parties and generate momentum — especially with the presidential race around the corner, which polls suggest Le Pen’s party could win.
The Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant party has traditionally done poorly in municipal elections. Breakthrough wins in next Sunday’s runoffs will further boost its credibility ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
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A top-contender from the Elysee Palace, former prime minister Edouard Philippe, has put his presidential ambitions on the line, suggesting he could drop out of the race if he fails to win re-election in Le Havre.
The port city was portrayed as a close contest, but exit polls put Philippe 10 points ahead of his leftist rival in the first round of voting, making him a strong favorite to win next week’s second round.
A 10% threshold to qualify for the March 22 runoffs means three-, four- or five-way races are possible in the second round, making their outcome difficult to predict.
With France’s dissident left increasingly divided and a “sanitary cordon” once blocking mainstream conservatives from forming alliances with the far-right showing signs of erosion, the focus now turns to frantic horse-trading as parties work to ally in some areas or retreat from others.
‘earthquake’
Polls have long shown mayors to be France’s most popular elected officials, leaving little scope for the protest vote that was once the right’s main driver.
But Le Pen’s national rally has grown into more than a magnet for the nation’s disaffected, becoming the largest single party in the French National Assembly after snap elections in 2024.
Opinion polls show that security is a top priority for voters, in line with the party’s law and order focus. That focus has attracted many voters in violence-plagued Marseille, France’s second-largest city, where RN candidate Frank Allisio is neck-and-neck with Socialist Mayor Benoit Payon.
Payan warned earlier this month that the cosmopolitan city falling to the right would be an “earthquake for the country”.
In further evidence that conservative voters are drifting to the right, Eric Ciotti, the former leader of the center-right Les Républiques, now a Le Pen ally, took a commanding lead in the Riviera city of Nice, 10 points ahead of longtime mayor Christian Estrosi from Macron’s center-right alliance.
The surge in support for Le Pen’s party comes as the veteran right-wing leader could be barred from challenging the presidency again. Last year, a French court convicted her of embezzlement and banned her from seeking public office for five years.
Le Pen hopes an appeals court will clear her in a key ruling scheduled for July 7 – her lieutenant Jordan Bardella is expected to step in as the party’s candidate for the Elysee Palace.
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