Bitcoin is showing mixed signals, as a long-term indicator points to a broader cyclical recovery, while a shorter-term chart warns that resistance is still on the way. Together, these two setups represent a market that may still have room for further growth, but must first survive the critical test of maturity.
The Bitcoin MVRV Z Score shows a cyclical pattern associated with past Bull markets
Long time Bitcoin The chart shared by analyst Ali Martinez shows that earlier bull markets started after the MVRV Z Score fell to very low levels. The indicator, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, has historically helped to identify periods when the asset sold based on its average investor value.
Bitcoin Cycle Indicator MVRV Z Score. Source: Ali Charts / Glassnode
According to the chart, the MVRV Z Score reached about -0.262 during the previous market cycles. Those moments have occurred in several past periods, including market lows in 2015, 2019 and 2022. After each of these signals, Bitcoin eventually moved to a new uptrend, which led to a huge price expansion.
Visually, the orange line compares the MVRV Z Score with the Bitcoin price trend, shown in black. In previous periods, the indicator fell into negative territory before recovering along with the price. Those periods were the phase when the selling pressure was largely exhausted and a long-term rally appeared in the market.
However, the chart also shows that the indicator will not stay at those extreme levels for long. When the market starts to recover, the Z Score will quickly move up. In the later stages of the cycle, it often reaches high positive values ​​when the market is overheated.
In the current structure, the MVRV Z Score is above historical lows, but remains well below previous period peaks. This position indicates that the market is no longer in the deep bearish zone that previously marked the bottom of the main. At the same time, it also does not reflect the superheated conditions found near the peaks of the previous period.
Therefore, this indicator shows that Bitcoin is moving in the middle phase of a broader cycle, rather than at a sharp turning point. The chart shows how the MVRV Z Score has repeatedly helped mark significant changes in market sentiment over many years.
Bitcoin faces breakout of key Fibonacci resistance near $75-78k
Bitcoin is attempting a short-term recovery after the previous sharp decline in the chart structure. The 12-hour chart shared by analyst Elja shows a price rally from recent lows, but the move is approaching the Fibonacci resistance zone that previously acted as support.
Bitcoin Fibonacci resistance level. Source: Elya
The chart shows the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $75,220 and the 0.618 level around $78,819 as major resistance bands. These levels are coming from a broader retracement of the previous low move. Therefore, the area now acts as a potential ceiling during the restoration phase.
During the previous decline, Bitcoin broke below the same retracement levels after failing to hold the upper range near the $90,000 area. After the breakout, the market accelerated to the downside before stabilizing and forming a consolidation base.
The current price is pushing Bitcoin back to those levels. In technical analysis, previous areas of support often turn into resistance after the price moves lower. Therefore, the $75,000 to $78,000 zone now stands out as the next hurdle that the market needs to overcome.
Elja notes that if Bitcoin fails to recover this area, the rejection could trigger another downward leg. In this scenario, the chart forecast suggests a possible move towards the $56,000 to $60,000 range, well below the current recovery zone.
For now, the structure shows Bitcoin testing whether the jump can turn into a stronger recovery. However, the Fibonacci resistance zone remains a key technical level that will likely determine the next market direction.
