According to Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan, Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million per coin if it captures a larger share of the global value market, which is currently dominated by gold and government bonds.
In a report earlier this week, Hougan said that bitcoin’s long-term upside depends less on short-term market cycles and more on how well the cryptocurrency wealth storage market absorbs over time.
“A million sounds crazy,” Hougan said. “This means that Bitcoin will rise 14 times from today’s price.”
He pointed to several factors that support this forecast, including the rapid growth of the global market for assets of value, including gold, government bonds and other defensive assets, which has grown from about $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion. Bitcoin currently only accounts for about 4% of this market by value.
If the largest cryptocurrency captures about half of this market in the current conditions, its price could approach $1 million within a decade, Hugan said. If the broader store of value market continues, bitcoin will require a lower stake to reach this level.
Set a price of $1 million
The $1 million prediction has become a recurring theme throughout the crypto industry. President Donald Trump’s son Eric recently doubled his $1 million BTC call. In August, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said that bitcoin could reach this price by 2030.
Jack Dorsey, who will lead X (formerly Twitter) until 2021 and co-founder of the payments company Block (formerly Square), said that Bitcoin could reach $1 million in five years. Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, believes that it can happen as soon as 2028. Ark Invest Kathy Wood has predicted that Bitcoin can reach 3.8 million dollars by the end of the decade. Bernstein projects $1 million between 2024 and 2033.
So why has the $1 million target become a widely cited benchmark for Bitcoin? CoinDesk asked several market analysts.
“This is a clean headline and shorthand for the idea that Bitcoin can compete with gold as a store of value. The exact number is less than Bitcoin’s share of global wealth,” said Matty Greenspan, market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics.
For Jason Fernandez, also a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, this phase is more psychological than an exact valuation goal, reflecting the belief that bitcoin may eventually win the value debate.
However, he also believes that part of the narrative is driven by marketing dynamics. “Some of the stories are promotional because the round numbers travel well and are in line with the owners’ motivations,” Fernandez said, though he added that the real story isn’t just advertising.
“I think a lot of investors make the mistake of valuing the ‘static denominator’ and valuing bitcoin relative to the current market value instead of a much larger future,” he said.
For Fernandez, the real question is not whether a $1 million bitcoin is theoretically possible, but whether the connections to institutional adoption are sufficient to justify that price.
Analysts agree on the direction, but not the timeline
Some of the analysts who shared their comments with CoinDesk said that Hougan’s prediction is plausible in the long run, although most characterized it as a decade-long acceptance story rather than a near-term prediction.
“Geopolitical tension reinforces Bitcoin’s thesis,” Greenspan said. “In uncertain times, investors are looking for neutral stores of value, and Bitcoin increasingly sits in that bucket alongside gold.”
Greenspan said this phase is possible but will likely take a decade or more, requiring continued institutional adoption and greater regulatory clarity.
Fernandez said Hougan’s argument is essentially a market share thesis. Bitcoin doesn’t need to completely replace gold, he said; it just needs to capture some of the growing global value storage market.
“A $1 million bitcoin represents long-term adoption and market share gains in the global value market,” Fernandez said. “This thesis is about the end state of bitcoin if it becomes a major global monetary asset.”
Institutional acceptance remains a key factor
Hougan argued that bitcoin’s constant supply of 21 million coins and its decentralized network give it similar characteristics to traditional stores of value, such as gold.
Fernandez said the $1 million long-term outlook largely depends on continued institutional acceptance and growth in the global value stock market.
“BTC doesn’t need to replace gold or fiat; it just needs to capture about 17% of the projected $121 trillion market over the next decade to justify the $1 million price tag,” Fernandez said.
Greenspan said geopolitical uncertainty could further strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral asset.
“In uncertain times, investors are looking for neutral stores of value, and bitcoin sits in that bucket alongside gold,” he said, though he added that reaching such a valuation would likely take years of sustained adoption.
Bitlease founder Nima Beni said the timeline could accelerate if confidence in traditional financial assets weakens.
“Bitcoin will hit $1 million when confidence in traditional ‘safe’ assets fades away,” he said, pointing to possible sovereign debt crises or disruptions in the gold market as possible catalysts.
Despite the lofty predictions, analysts said bitcoin’s path to such a valuation will depend more on long-term adoption and macroeconomic conditions than on short-term market cycles.
