As other Iran-allied groups engage in Middle East war, Yemen’s Houthis hold back

Cairo — Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have so far remained on the sidelines as Iran’s war widens across the Middle East, raising questions about why — and when — the battle-hardened group might join the fray.

Iran has retaliated against the United States and Israel with missiles and drones, targeting American military bases and other locations in the Gulf Arab states, disrupting trade routes, choking off energy supplies and threatening regional air traffic.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, suggested Thursday in his first written statement since his father was killed in the war’s opening salvo that Iran could open new fronts in the conflict — a sign, analysts say, that the Houthis may soon become involved.

Until now, the Houthis have been reluctant to fight, fearing assassinations of their leaders, internal divisions in Yemen and uncertainties in arms supplies, experts said.

But that could change as Iran seeks to increase pressure on global oil supply lines through potential attacks by the Houthis, who have had previous success targeting oil facilities in the region, analysts said.

Iran has asserted its influence across the Middle East through its Houthi proxy forces in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.

Some of its closest allies have already joined the conflict, with Hezbollah resuming attacks on Israel two days after the attack on Iran — and just 15 months after the last Israel-Hezbollah war ended in a November 2024 ceasefire. Militias linked to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed drone attacks on US bases in Irbil.

Meanwhile, the Houthis have only made statements condemning Iran’s war, in contrast to the waves of missile and drone attacks they carried out on Israel and in the Red Sea after October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacks on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip.

Here’s a look at the Houthis’ military capabilities and where they stand in the conflict.

Armed by Iran, the Houthis seized much of Yemen’s north and its capital, Sanaa, in 2014, forcing the country’s internationally recognized government into exile. A Saudi-led coalition supporting the Yemeni government entered the conflict the following year, and the Houthis waged a long but mostly civil war in Yemen.

While the Houthis share some political and religious ties with Iran, they follow a different ideology of Shia Islam and are independent of Iran’s supreme leader, unlike the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and several Iran-backed Iraqi militaries.

Still, they remain key to Iran’s regional influence and are unlikely to be weakened by the current war, said Ahmad Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank.

“From Tehran’s perspective, the Houthis have proven themselves to be a capable and effective front, able to exert real pressure,” Nagy said.

He said the Houthi leaders’ decision to stay away from the conflict was a calculated choice fully coordinated with the Iranians.

Two Houthi members of the group’s media and political offices told The Associated Press that the rebels’ weapons stockpile has dwindled since attacks during the Israel-Hamas war. The Iran war has further impeded the flow of arms, officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to the media.

Still, the group has a large stockpile of drones, which another official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the weapons issue, said he was well aware of.

The Houthis appear to be building up their forces by recruiting more fighters, relying on local arms production and sending reinforcements to Yemen’s west coast on the Red Sea, Nagy said, as they prepare for an escalation.

“The decision is not about reluctance to intervene, but about timing,” Nagy said. “Iran’s broader strategy appears to be to avoid throwing all its cards on the table at once, instead gradually using its partners and capabilities as the confrontation evolves.”

The Houthis are likely to step in if the conflict widens, Nagy added, or if they perceive an existential threat to Iran, such as a significant decline in military capabilities.

Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi has repeatedly stressed that the group is ready to intervene, claiming his “hands are on the trigger,” though it is unclear what that involvement will entail.

“The Houthis, of course, are always ready for any war,” said Faria al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London. “Some weapons have recently moved in different areas of Yemen … but it is not yet clear whether this is for a military escalation.”

Nagy said if the Houthis entered the war, they would resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and hit Israel. They could join Iran’s attacks on Gulf states targeting US military assets and interests.

Attacks on ships during the Israel-Hamas war increased shipping in the Red Sea, through which before the war about $1 trillion worth of goods passed each year. The rebels also fired drones at Israel.

If the Houthis join the Iran war, their primary targets are likely to be oil tankers, analysts said, as the vessel presents the most immediate pressure point and attacking it would signal escalation while affecting energy supply chains.

Attacks on oil installations can also be considered. The Houthis have previously hit oil facilities in Saudi Arabia during their long-running conflict against the Saudi-led coalition.

Meanwhile, US military sites in the region could also be targeted, Nagy said.

Abdel-Bari Taher, a political analyst and former head of Yemen’s Press Syndicate, said any decision to join the war would be influenced by the internal situation in Yemen, including recent deadly clashes in southern Yemen, public opposition to joining the war in Sanaa, and heightened caution among Houthi leaders after high-profile killings.

Two Houthi officials from the group’s media and political offices said the US had sent warnings through Omani intermediaries not to participate in the war. He said Houthi political and security leaders had been warned that their cellphones were under US and Israeli surveillance. Houthi leaders have been instructed not to appear in public for fear of possible Israeli assassination, officials said.

“Despite these restrictions and the complex domestic and regional dynamics, Houthi involvement in the conflict remains a possibility,” Taher said.

Al-Muslimi, the Chatham House analyst, said the Houthis do not have the military capabilities or an internal Yemeni interest to compel them to join the war, and that the group remains committed to a ceasefire with the US brokered by Oman last year.

“They especially hope to fight Israel, but they cannot fire the first shot,” Al-Muslimi said.

He said the Houthis may need a local Yemeni cause to join the fight — one that would strengthen support in their local base.

Al-Muslimi notes: The Houthis are “a local group that Iran uses and supports, but did not create.”

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Ahmed Al-Hajj, an Associated Press journalist in Aden, Yemen, contributed to this report.