Spot Bitcoin ETFs gained $53 million a day this week, surpassing $1.16 billion in monthly inflows — a sharp reversal after four straight months of outflows that saw more than $6 billion leave the same funds.
ETFs reflect changing investor behavior
The reversal is being read by analysts as a sign that investors are pulling back after a prolonged sell-off. Bitcoin was trading around $70,850 as of Saturday, higher than early year lows, and technical indicators are pointing to the upside.
The relative strength index rose to 56 from a high of 15 in January, and the Supertrend indicator on the daily chart has turned bearish.
Forecast markets reflect this improved sentiment. In Kalshi, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by January 2027 has risen to 40% – its highest reading since February. Polymarket puts the odds even higher at 50%. To achieve this goal, Bitcoin needs to gain about 35% from the current level.
Source: Kalshi
Geopolitical Tensions Add New Dimension to Bitcoin Rally
Part of the story playing out in the crypto markets has a geopolitical background. However, the ongoing conflict between Iran, the US and Israel has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, fueling inflationary concerns. In this context, the question is whether the Federal Bank will reduce the interest rate this year?
Gold ETFs and the stock market may have seen outflows, but Bitcoin is experiencing net inflows. In this context, the situation is used as evidence that Bitcoin acts as a safe haven.
BTCUSD trading at $70,670 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
The picture changed little on Friday after cooler-than-expected PCE inflation and a modest drop in oil prices, following reports that the US had lifted sanctions that allowed some companies to buy Russian oil. Bitcoin rose after the news.
A technical overview of the main levels is ahead
On the chart, Bitcoin is trying to retrace its 50-day exponential moving average as support rather than resistance. The Interest Rate Oscillator is approaching a crossover of the zero line, which traders are watching closely as a momentum signal.
Analysts say the next test for Bitcoin bulls will be whether the coin can break above $70,000 in the coming week. If the buying pressure continues, psychological barriers at $80,000 and $90,000 will become the next milestones on the way to a potential six-figure price.
Whether that will happen by the end of the year remains an open question — one that the forecast markets, at least, are no longer dismissing.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Editing process because bitcoinist is committed to delivering thoroughly researched, accurate and unbiased content. We adhere to strict sourcing standards and every page is rigorously reviewed by a team of top technology experts and experienced editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance and value of our content to our readers.
