TOAn eerie quiet hangs over the industrial port of Ras Al Khaimah. Once a thriving maritime hub in the United Arab Emirates, ships now sit docked and silent. Not far on the hazy horizon, hundreds of tankers have lined up in recent days, stopped along a waterway flooded with danger.
Any ship passing through Ras Al Khaimah to the Arabian Sea must pass through the most treacherous stretch of water in the world for shipping today: the Strait of Hormuz. Just over 20 nautical miles from Ras Al Khaimah, two oil tankers heading to the strait were attacked this week by Iranian missiles and one of them caught fire.
On Saturday, Fujairah, the United Arab Emirates’ main oil port on its east coast, was the target of a drone attack, with thick black smoke seen billowing from its terminal.
It is one of the many consequences facing the Gulf states as they are drawn deeper into a war they did not start and which they had tried to diplomatically avoid.
For decades, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman have allowed US military bases, infrastructure or access on their territory, and have been among the largest buyers of US weapons and technology. In return, the United States has remained the Gulf’s closest and most important military partner and protector.
But now, Gulf states are increasingly concerned about the relationship, analysts say, after Donald Trump was seen as intentionally torpedoing peaceful diplomatic negotiations in favor of starting a war in the Middle East.
“The perceived Iranian threat to the Gulf only became a reality when the United States declared war; Iran did not shoot first,” says Khaled Almezaini, associate professor of politics and international relations at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi. “There is strong condemnation of the Iranians, but at the same time there is a message to the Americans and the Israelis that, well, we have to find a way to end this. This is not our war.”
In the weeks before the attacks, Gulf leaders organized negotiations and made repeated overtures to the US president, emphasizing the serious consequences for regional security if he attacked Iran. However, it is widely believed that Trump decided to carry out the attacks without consulting or warning Gulf allies.
While the Gulf was expected to be caught up in the backlash, the scale of Iran’s revenge campaign has left many shocked. The Gulf states had assured Tehran that none of its bases would be used for attacks, but that has not stopped Iran from launching thousands of drones and missiles at airports, military bases, oil refineries, ports, hotels and office buildings.
Aviation in the region remains severely restricted, with airlines losing billions of dollars. Bahrain is facing an economic crisis, while the UAE’s reputation as a haven for tourism and Western investment has been severely damaged. States are successfully repelling most Iranian missiles and drones, but interceptors and air defense systems are costing countries like the United Arab Emirates more than $2 billion.
Iran’s violent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – the only sea passage linking the Gulf to the open ocean and through which a fifth of the world’s energy supply passes – has led to a drastic reduction in the oil and gas exports that finance Gulf economies. Experts estimate that between $700 and $1.2 billion in oil exports are lost every day.
“The United Arab Emirates and the Gulf Cooperation Council tried to prevent the United States from declaring this war because they knew the implications,” Almezaini says. He pointed to threats made by Iran’s foreign minister just months earlier about closing the strait. “Exactly that scenario is playing out now,” he adds.
The asymmetry of the Gulf’s military partnership with the United States has never been more stark, says Allison Minor, director of the Atlantic Council’s project on Middle East integration. Only in September did Israel carry out airstrikes against Qatar, another US ally in the Gulf, prompting no substantial action from Washington.
“The most fundamental issue is consultation,” he says. “Are the Gulf states really achieving the kind of partnership and security support they consider necessary if the United States is to engage militarily in the region?”
On Thursday, Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al Busaidi, who was a mediator in previous talks between Iran and the United States, made some of his strongest comments on the conflict yet.
“Oman’s view is that military attacks against Iran by the United States and Israel are illegal, and that as long as hostilities continue, the states that launched this war will violate international law,” he said.
Al Busaidi said the United States’ decision to attack Iran while peaceful negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program were advancing demonstrated that the conflict was only an attempt to reorder the Middle East in Israel’s favor.
Analysts emphasize that many Gulf states find themselves in a conflicted position: trying to lower the temperature of the war while pressuring the United States to finish the job in Iran and ensure they are not left with the worst-case scenario: a weakened, wounded and volatile Islamic republic on their doorstep.
“This is the Gulf’s worst nightmare,” says Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme. “There is deep anger and frustration towards the United States because this is not their (Gulf states’) war and yet they are the most affected.” Vakil says the Gulf states had long sought a security partnership with the United States similar to the one Israel enjoys, but had now realized “that may never happen.”
However, for all the recognition of the need to diversify its security partners, he adds, the Gulf currently has no alternative as its ultimate protector.
“The Gulf is not going to act quickly, nor can it, to find alternatives to the United States. But neither are they going to double down on an unreliable partner,” he says. “It will likely advance the pursuit of strategic autonomy, which is already on the horizon, perhaps at a faster pace.”
Despite all the geopolitical ramifications, the economic effects have also reached everyday life. At the boat and jet ski rental company he worked for at the marina next to Ras Al Khaimah harbour, Sumon, 27, says business has been strangled because the coast guard does not allow any of its boats to go out to sea.
“For many days, our boats and jet skis are not allowed to go out because of all these problems and the fighting with Iran at sea,” he says. “It’s very bad news, we don’t have clients and my boss can’t give me a salary.” Sumon points to the port ahead: “There are no ships moving anymore. No one knows when it will end.”
