According to analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, XRP is not in a compression phase, saying that the most important chart trigger is now $2.20. In a message published on Friday, he argued that a retracement of this level would mark the point at which the current structure becomes decisively constructive again.
EGRAG’s analysis is built around the XRP monthly chart and specifically, the 21-period exponential moving average. “I’ll say it again: I don’t predict the future. I read charts, study cycles and use indicators,” he wrote, referring to the setup as a directional call rather than a structural reading of the market. “Now the 21 EMA is the key.”
What does this mean for the price of XRP?
In his chart, that yellow 21 EMA has acted as a central trend reference through multiple XRP cycles. The last monthly candles indicate that the price will break below this line after a sharp rally and then move into what he describes as a “compressible/falling channel”. He coupled this with another key observation: “Price lost the 21 EMA,” “formed a descending/falling channel” and “rejected the $2.20 macro zone.” His conclusion of the combination was blunt: “This is not an accident structure.”
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This difference is the basis of the thesis. Rather than reading the recent decline as a broad surrender, EGRAG says the candle’s behavior points to a controlled pullback. “Look at the candles: shrinking bodies, weakening downward momentum, controlled reversal,” he wrote. “It’s seller fatigue, not a collapse.”
The diagram supports this reading visually. The candles on the right side of the structure are smaller than the previous impulse move, and the decline is more sustained than the impulse. Falling yellow guide lines drawn above recent price action indicate a narrowing channel rather than a vertical uptrend. In practical terms, the installation appears to be in compression to a decision point rather than direct structural failure.
EGRAG then laid out two possible paths from here. The first is what he calls “Liquidity First,” which means “the final change is $0.80-$1.00.” In his words, this scenario would reflect a “movement of measure and liquidity below”, suggesting that XRP could sink to the lower part of the structure before any broader attempt to reverse.
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The second way is the fastest alternative. “A quick reversal,” he wrote, “will come if XRP recovers $1.65-$1.80,” at which point “the structure will again move upward.” This recovery zone is important because it indicates that compression has not resulted in a defect and buyers are regaining control before a deeper wash.
However, the most important level of the chart is higher. EGRAG is clear about this: “The level that changes everything $2.20: Reset this level and the expansion phase will be activated again.” He followed up with the road map above: “Future targets: return $2.20, retest $2.50.”
That’s $2.20 more than a nearby resistance group. In this reading, it is the macropath that separates the still-unsolved correction from the new expansion phase. The analyst had already identified it as an area where XRP had declined before, so a move above it would not only recover lost ground; it will invalidate the idea that the market is below a breakout zone.
For now, his message is that the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. “Until then… It’s a squeeze, not a capitulation,” wrote EGRAG. “Structure > Sound.”
At press time, XRP was trading at $1.41.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
