Bitcoin is trying to break above the $72,000 level as the market looks for direction after weeks of volatile and mostly sideways price action. While buyers have recently pushed the asset higher, the $72K area continues to act as a resistance level, limiting upside momentum as traders assess both macroeconomic conditions and chain signals.
In the midst of this technical battle, a new study by CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Research Japan highlights a significant change in Bitcoin’s long-term valuation metrics. The report focuses on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a widely used on-chain indicator to assess whether Bitcoin is trading above or below its historical value.
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to realized capitalization, which represents the cumulative value of coins based on the price they last moved on the chain. By analyzing this relationship, the indicator helps to determine whether the average investor currently has an unrealized profit or loss.
According to the latest data, Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV ratio has dropped to the levels seen at the end of 2022 after the collapse of the FTX exchange. During that period, intense market pressure pushed many investors into sudden losses that pushed average returns well below historical rates and marked one of the most difficult phases of the previous market cycle.
MVRV samples suggest a potential undervalued phase
The CryptoQuant report notes that previous periods of depressed MVRV readings were often preceded by strong recoveries in the price of Bitcoin. After the intense market pressure that followed the collapse of FTX at the end of 2022, Bitcoin entered a similar valuation zone. In the three months that followed, assets rose nearly 67%, marking the start of a broader recovery phase.
Historically, such patterns tend to occur when the MVRV ratio falls significantly below its long-term average. At these levels, many investors hold coins at a loss, which often reduces selling pressure, as weaker hands have already exited the market. In these environments, long-term investors often begin to accumulate positions as the perceived balance of risk and reward improves.
However, the current market environment is different from the conditions observed in 2022. Previous downturns have largely been caused by internal shocks in the crypto industry, including major bankruptcies and liquidity crises. Today, broader macroeconomic forces play a dominant role, notably higher interest rates and tighter global liquidity conditions.
At the same time, the structure of the market also developed. Institutional participation has increased significantly through the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs and the growing corporate crowdfunding strategies.
While MVRV does not guarantee an immediate price reversal, the report suggests that the current squeeze in valuations could be an important milestone for assessing Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Bitcoin is testing resistance after the February retracement near $72,000
The chart shows Bitcoin trading around $72,000 as the market tries to recover from the sharp correction that occurred earlier in 2026. After hitting highs above $120,000 in the previous phase, BTC entered a sustained downtrend marked by a series of highs and increasing selling pressure over several months.
The most significant move in the recent structure occurred in early February, when Bitcoin experienced a rapid selloff that briefly pushed the price into the $60,000 region. The decline was accompanied by a sharp increase in trading volume, suggesting forced liquidation and aggressive selling across the market.
After that capitulation-like event, Bitcoin stabilized and formed a short-term recovery structure. Over the past few weeks, the price has gradually risen, retrieving the $70,000 area and approaching the $72,000 resistance level.
However, the technical structure still has important tasks ahead. Bitcoin remains below its major moving average, continuing its downward slope, indicating that the broader trend has not yet fully reversed.
The $72,000-$74,000 zone now represents an important resistance range. A successful figure above this area could open the door for a broader recovery to higher levels, while a rejection here could lead to fresh consolidation as the market continues to search for directional momentum.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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