Bitcoin’s power is astounding, but they haven’t given up yet

Key considerations:

• Bitcoin surges above $71,000 as weak US economic data and the US-Israel-Iran war push investors into the scarce asset.

• The correlation of technical stocks with BTC and rising oil prices suggests that the 5-month correction from $126,000 may not be over.

Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $73,000 on Friday and successfully locked the 70,000 support for the week. The gains came as the US reported weak economic activity data that raised concerns about an impending recession, while the war in Iran continues.

While socio-economic events and institutional inflows may have led to Bitcoin’s upward momentum, traders still doubt whether the bear market is truly over.

Economic turmoil, growing investor appetite for BTC reversed Bitcoin’s decline

The US economy grew by just 0.7% between October and December 2025, a significant drop from previous estimates, according to a report from the US Commerce Department released on Friday. With the final report due on April 9, the risk of a recession will increase through 2026, driving investors away from US Treasuries.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 4.26 percent, meaning investors are demanding higher yields to hold these assets. The mere risk of additional liquidity causes traders to seek refuge in scarce assets. This partly explains why the S&P 500 was only 5% below its peak despite worsening economic conditions.

S&P 500 futures fell to a three-month low on Monday after a brief rally in oil prices to $119.50. The US decision to temporarily allow purchases of Russian oil left in the river has helped mitigate some of the risks. The move, announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant on Friday, eased short-term market concerns.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin has also been cited as a possible factor behind the recent upward momentum. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) faced net inflows of $583 million for four consecutive days, while analysts estimated that the Strategy ( MSTR ) collected more than $900 million through the STRC income instrument.

related to: Bitcoin’s ‘Very Accurate’ Macro Signal Puts $100K Target Back Into Play

Bitcoin’s momentum has turned upside, but the bear market continues

At first glance, the economic background points to an injection of liquidity and increased institutional interest in Bitcoin. However, this does not mean that the five-month correction after the peak of $126,000 in October 2025 is over.

Bitcoin’s 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 is 84%. As concerns about inflation and sustainable economic growth grow, the likelihood of a stock market pullback increases. Traders are unlikely to use Bitcoin as a hedge, especially given its relative inferiority to gold.

Additionally, oil prices remain $30 higher than pre-war levels in Iran. These high fuel costs hit consumer spending and create inflationary pressures that reduce the capital available to retail traders for crypto investment.

Inflows into BTC ETFs increased as $2.14 billion inflows into ETFs from February 24th to March 4th, resulting in a 14% increase. However, prices fell 10% over the next four days as these trends reversed. This suggests that the ETF’s performance is only reacting to the price of Bitcoin and not acting as a leading indicator.

Whether Bitcoin stays above $70,000 over the weekend may not change investor sentiment. Although the five-week consolidation and several tests of the $64,000 support show the confidence of the bulls, the recent price action has not given a clear signal to break.