Republic of Congo Elections: Who’s Running and What’s at Stake? | Election news

Voters in the Republic of Congo will elect their next president on Sunday, although analysts say longtime leader Dennis Sassou Ngusso is likely to be elected unopposed.

The Central African nation, led continuously by Ngusso for more than 40 years, is one of the most politically repressive in the world, with Freedom House rating 17 out of 100 for freedom.

The country is Africa’s third largest oil exporter. It sells between 236,000 and 252,000 barrels per day, along with copper and diamonds.

Congo is also rich in biodiversity. The country’s vast expanses of tropical rainforest form part of the Congo Basin – the world’s second largest rainforest network after the Amazon. Nowbale-Ndoki National Park in the north is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and home to elephants, endangered lowland gorillas and chimpanzees.

Still, the country of 6 million people is plagued by economic problems. Corruption and mismanagement contribute to Congo’s ranking of 171st out of 193 countries on the United Nations’ Human Development Index, analysts say.

Meanwhile, a fractured political opposition has allowed Nguesso’s ruling Congolese Labor Party (PCT) to consolidate power over the years, although newcomers are raising hopes.

Here’s what we know about Sunday’s vote:

When does voting open?

Voting will open on Saturday, March 15, between 6 am (05:00 GMT) and 6 pm (05:00 GMT). More than 2.6 million people are eligible to vote; That is, they are over 18 years old and registered.

In 2021 – during the last election – the turnout was 67.70 percent, according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). Officials have announced that the borders will be closed during the voting period.

Candidates with an absolute majority usually win elections, or in rare cases, a run-off between the two top polling candidates is called.

The president’s term in Congo is five years. Although the constitution previously allowed a maximum of two terms and an age limit of 70, these were removed in 2015.

who is running

Dennis Sassou Ngusso: The 82-year-old was first elected to power in 1979 and led the country for 12 years under a one-party state. He lost the election after opposition lawmakers voted to introduce a multiparty system. In his second attempt in 1997, he seized power in a bloody civil war and has remained in office ever since. He is the third longest serving ruler in Africa.

Ngusso’s legacy is one of gross underdevelopment and corruption, said Andrea Ngombet, the exiled founder of Sassoufit, a group campaigning for Ngusso’s departure. In 2015, Nguesso pushed through a controversial referendum that reset presidential term limits from two to three. It removed age restrictions entirely, allowing him to run for a fifth consecutive term in 2021.

Analysts say a strong grip on the country’s judiciary and the independent National Electoral Institute (CENI) helped Ngusso consolidate his hold. Their strategic international alliances, from Beijing to Moscow to Paris, have ensured foreign investments and increased their influence, according to Ngombet. However, since 2013, under pressure from civil society, France has launched investigations into several of his family’s properties in Europe and the US. French authorities seized property belonging to his son Denis-Christel Sassou Nguesso in 2022.

Meline Deston Gavet Elengo: At just 35, Elengo’s candidacy has made waves. The oilfield engineer leads the Republican movement and is the youngest contender in the race. Despite being a first-time presidential candidate, Elengo is drawing an unusual amount of interest as he looks set to depart from the old system. His campaign emphasized a government built on transparency, an independent judiciary and inclusive development.

“He can get at least 20 percent of the vote, which indicates a generational change,” Ngombet said.

“His unique advantage is the undeclared support of UPADS dissidents frustrated by the boycott,” he said, referring to the opposition Pan-African Union for Social Democracy (UPADS), which boycotted the March 21, 2021 presidential election over integrity concerns. UPADS is doing the same this year but has called on its supporters to go out and vote according to their “conscience”.

Elengo is closely allied with political heavyweights such as the opposition Union of Humanist Democrats, founded by the late Guy-Brice Parfait Colellas, a populist opposition figure who came second in 2016.

Joseph Kignoumbi Kia Mboungou, 73: The veteran lawmaker is the leader of the political party The Chain and represents the South West Lecoumou department. He has run several times in the past without much success, garnering just 0.62 percent of the vote in his 2021 bid. Mboungou’s campaign promised political change and an economy that would diversify away from oil while reducing poverty.

Ufrem Dave Mafaula, 43: The economist is the leader of the New Start party. He is making his second attempt at the top post in 2021 after running as the youngest candidate and garnering just 0.52 percent of the vote. Mapaula aims to implement governance reforms, create jobs and reduce inequalities.

Vivian Romain Manangou, 43: An independent first-timer is a university lecturer campaigning on institutional reforms, reforming public finances and promoting national unity.

Mabio Mawungau Zinga, 69: The retired customs inspector and former member of parliament, who is running under the opposition coalition Alliance Party, promises to tackle corruption and free jailed opposition leaders. This is his first bid.

Anguios Ngangwia Mgambe, about 60: The chairman of the Party for Action of the Republic is running for the presidency for the fourth time. In 2021, he won only 0.18 percent of the vote. This time, he is committed to bridging political divides in the country and fostering better political participation.

Which opposition leaders have been targeted?

Several opposition leaders are jailed or in exile. Some are:

Jean-Marie ⁠Michel Mococo, 78: A former army chief and adviser to Ngusso, he turned against the president and ran for re-election in 2016. The results prompted calls for protests after he won 13.74 percent and finished third. He was later arrested and sentenced to 20 years in prison in 2018 on charges of undermining state security.

Andre Okombi Salissa: A one-time leading member of the ruling Congolese Labor Party, and a former minister, Salissa switched to the opposition in 2016 to contest elections. A short time later he was arrested on security charges. In 2019, he was sentenced to 20 years rigorous imprisonment.

What are the key issues?

Poverty despite oil wealth

Analysts have long warned that a lack of economic diversity hurts the country’s future. As Africa’s third-largest oil producer, Congo earns more than 80 percent of its export revenue from oil, according to the World Bank, making the economy vulnerable to shocks.

Government investment in hydrocarbons has intensified in recent years. In 2015, officials set a goal of increasing daily production to 500,000 barrels of oil per day within three years. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and export will also begin in 2024.

Despite this, half of the population lives below the poverty line. Most live in the major cities of Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire, where access to electricity and roads is available but poor. Analysts say the situation is even worse in rural areas.

While the population is young, with almost half under the age of 18, job creation is weak. Many young graduates have to turn to menial jobs for survival. According to the World Bank, with the unemployment rate at approximately 40 percent, inadequate electricity is one of the major barriers to business.

Forestry and Agriculture

Before oil extraction began in the 1970s, agricultural products and timber were the largest income generators in the Congo.

However, Congo remains dependent on food imports amid the transition to oil.

Although the country has over 10 million hectares (24 million acres) of arable land, only a small percentage is cultivated, and that is mostly for low-yield subsistence farming.

The government has promoted schemes to promote the cultivation of cassava, corn, sorghum and soya, as well as develop fisheries and poultry.

Meanwhile, deforestation in the Congo Basin, which includes parts of Congo and five neighboring countries, nearly doubled between 2010 and 2020 compared to the previous decade.

Political independence and race after Ngusso

According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, protests are rare in the country because authorities do not issue permits and do not respond with violence when protesters gather.

Imprisoning members of the opposition is common. Ngusso appoints the national judges themselves, meaning the judiciary is not independent.

Many Congolese expect Ngusso to win Sunday’s election, with much attention now focused on who will assume leadership in the country in the coming years.

Analysts say a fierce succession race is already underway behind the scenes.

Denis-Christel Nguesso, the president’s son and minister of international cooperation, is the clear favorite, but he faces challenges from the president’s nephew and national security chief Jean-Dominique Okemba.

Nguessos’ cousin, Jean-Jacques Bouya, currently Minister of Planning and Works, is another contender.