On-chain analytics firm Glassnode explained how a Bitcoin holder’s return to profitability could act as a precondition for a sustained price recovery.
Bitcoin STH’s profit margin is currently less than 50%
In a recent post on X, Glassnode talked about the recent trend in supply metrics in profits for short-term Bitcoin holders (STHs). Profit margin, as the name suggests, measures the percentage of the BTC supply that is currently held in some unanticipated net profit.
In the context of the current topic, only the water stored by BTC STHs is relevant. This group includes all addresses that have purchased their tokens within the last 155 days. STHs form one of the two main segments of the market, based on holding time and the other known as long-term holders (LTHs).
Statistically, the longer an investor holds their coins, the less likely they are to sell them in the future. Thus, STHs are considered to be the weakest side of the market with relatively short holding times, while LTHs comprise the diamond arms.
As shown in the chart below showing STHs’ profitability, new entrants to the market enjoyed a high degree of profitability before Bitcoin experienced a low volatility in the 4th quarter of 2025:
The drop in price led to a decrease in the value of the indicator, which means that part of the tokens are flooded by Bitcoin STHs. From the graph, it is clear that this indicator recently fell below the 50% mark and has been in this area of low profitability ever since.
In the past, being under pressure in this group generally meant a lack of demand in the market. “Risk appetite tends to be driven by demand until this returns above 50%,” noted Glassnode.
In the chart, there are several examples of STH supply exceeding 50% in profit, the most recent being the price increase from the first half of 2025. At that time, the return of profits for the cohort led to a bitcoin that set new all-time highs (ATHs).
Given this trend, it is possible that a change in the metric above the 50% level will once again be significant for the cryptocurrency. “Keep this level as a precondition for a sustained recovery,” the analyst firm explained.
BTC price
Bitcoin has made a fresh attempt at $72,000 after rising 3% in the last 24 hours.
