Bitcoin (BTC) mining is becoming one of the toughest businesses in crypto in 2026.
What was once seen as a very lucrative way to generate revenue has increasingly become a constant stress test for operators across the industry.
A combination of forces pulls the miner from several directions. Half of the Bitcoin phenomenon forces companies to operate with reduced margins. At the same time, there are questions about the long-term sustainability of mining business models.
Then there is the rapid growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure and hyperscale data centers.
But miners now have another challenge to list: geopolitics.
Global conflicts and political decisions are increasingly shaping financial markets, and Bitcoin is no longer immune to ripple effects.
For miners, this creates a new layer of uncertainty.
A sudden increase in disputes, sanctions or barriers to international trade can quickly push the price of Bitcoin up or down. Because mining profits are strongly tied to the price of Bitcoin, this shock can directly affect earnings.
Related: What is Bitcoin Mining? explain
Luxor Technologies’ new Hashrate Index analysis suggests that the impact of the ongoing war between the United States, Israel and Iran, particularly disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, could put pressure on miners. This is primarily through the volatility of Bitcoin’s price rather than the increase in electricity costs.
The research examines how coordinated attacks by the United States and Israel on Iranian targets could affect global markets.
Following the turmoil, WTI crude rose from around $65 to $100 per barrel before falling to around $90. About 20% of the world’s oil supplies typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making the waterway one of the most important hubs in global energy markets.
At press time, the price of WTI crude oil stood at $95 after falling 5% in the previous week.
Higher crude prices also led to trading activity in the decentralized derivatives markets. Platforms like Hyperliquid are seeing increased use as traders want to anticipate oil price movements outside of traditional trading hours.
According to data from the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance and the Bitcoin Mining Council, more than half of the Bitcoin network uses non-fossil energy sources.
Analysts at Hashrate Index say crude oil itself is “essentially a circular error” in the energy mix that powers global mining operations.
Instead, most miners draw power from grids powered by natural gas, coal, hydroelectric or geothermal energy. As a result, the study estimates that about 90% of the world’s hashrates operate in electricity markets where electricity prices have minimal correlation with crude oil.
Most of the world’s hashrate is concentrated in the United States, Russia and China. Other major mining centers include Paraguay, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Canada, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan, most of which rely on hydropower or natural gas production.
Only a small part of the grid is directly exposed to oil-related electricity markets. Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Oman, account for about 6% of the world’s electricity systems, where electricity prices are closely watched.
According to the analysis, including exposures from Iran, Kuwait, Qatar and Libya raises the crude sensitive portion of the network to approximately 8%-10%.
So if oil doesn’t directly affect Bitcoin mining, then what’s the concern?
Analysts have pointed out that the main risk is not the cost of electricity, but how geopolitical shocks affect the global macroeconomic situation.
Higher oil prices could raise inflation expectations and change the interest rate outlook. This potentially drives investors towards safe assets and away from volatile assets such as Bitcoin.
In fact, at the start of the battle, Bitcoin fell 6.4% in 24 hours. From a pre-war range of $67,000, Bitcoin fell to $63,176 on February 28. However, it crossed the $70,000 mark several times before settling in the $64,000 and $69,000 range.
This change could suppress the price of hashes, a key metric for measuring revenue earned per unit of computing power.
Hashrate Index data shows this dynamic already playing out earlier this year. The hash price fell to an all-time low of $27.89 per PH/s/day in February after Bitcoin fell 23.8%, falling from $78,000 to $65,000.
Miners that limit their exposure perform significantly better. Over the past year, operations using USD-denominated hash rate growth contracts outperformed spot mining by 8.2%, the analysis found.
At press time, Bitcoin was up 4.3% overnight to trade at $73,108.87.
This story was originally published by The Street on March 13, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Favorite Source by clicking here.
