MLB Home Run Future Prop Betting: 4 Picks to Target This Season

Today we’ll take a look at some individual home run prop bets. Of course, there is always the risk of injury when playing over, so ideally you want to play under.

I also basically expect the book to be tilted high because most people prefer overplay…well most betting markets. But I don’t actually think that’s true. The props I see are all tracked very closely to publicly available projection systems, and they all take into account time already missed. So 3 out of 4 of my picks ended up overside. Oh well. Anyway, here are my MLB picks for home run totals.

Joe Adell over 25.5 (-115 BetRivers)

Once baseball’s top prospect, he finally arrived in 2025. He reduced his K% to 26.4% and his Whiff% to 28.5%. Both are still bad (16th and 25th percentile respectively), but low for him. And when you have a 17.2 barrel percentage and 37 home runs, which are easily career highs, no one is going to complain.

Adell has 99th percentile bat speed and 86th percentile EV, so his power looks real. Plus, he’s playing in his home stadium, which has a park factor of 116 for right-handers, the fourth highest in MLB. Adell is still a weak defender and that may cost him an at-bat here and there, but now he’s back as an OF corner and his team isn’t looking to compete for much. So there’s no reason they shouldn’t just let him play.

Munetaka Murakami Under 28.5 (-110 bet365)

I won’t pretend to be anything close to a Japanese baseball expert. This is just a hunch that the transition from NPB to MLB is difficult. Munetaka has major contact issues as his K% in the 20s over the past three seasons translates to around a 35% K% here. That’s hard work. Of course, he offset this with authoritative power, including 22 home runs out of 224 PA last year. This prop matches the projection system. I think early 20s is a difficult question for first year here.

Vinny Pasquantino over 25.5 (-115 bet365)

‘Pasquatch’ hit 32 home runs with 56 barrels in 2026. And now it has moved into the fence of his home stadium. Needless to say, he’s surrounded by a great lineup with Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia in front of him and Salvy Perez and Jac Caglianone behind him for protection. He’s not a statcast monster by any means, but I think he has a good chance of hitting 30 again if he stays healthy.

James Wood over 24.5 (-105 bet365)

I can see why this total is low. Wood has been absolutely brutal in the second half of 2025, hitting .223 with just seven home runs and an incredibly bad 39% K%. However, he surpassed that total this year by hitting 31 home runs. Yeah, the contact profile looks pretty unstable, and he’s also a 5th percentile Whiff% guy.

But with the power back, his EV actually rose to 95.4 in the second half, and his 94.3 EV for the entire season puts him in the 98th percentile. Like Adell, he’s on a bad team and will play every day. Last year he was only at 6.3, but this spring he went up to 12.0, so I’d love to see him elevate LA! Okay, that’s just a 12-hit event, but perhaps it’s an indication of a change in approach.